As I have said many times before, your only edge over wall street is that you DON'T have to trade, you can sit it out and be patient and that is what we are going to do tonight. There's no point in posting trades when we have 24 decent trades from yesterday, many of which haven't triggered yet. I feel fairly confident that the $107 level on the SPY will be taken out, maybe lower, but I also feel these are to set up short squeezes so for the moment we are going to be patient and see how this plays out in the a.m.
We have plenty of leveraged ETFs and long trades on the list should this market show resilience, but we will wait for confirmation first. This is for many people the hardest part of trading, sitting still, but it is also your greatest advantage, tomorrow will be an exercise in patience. If the market comes our way, I will post the trades that should be added, the limit orders are all still the same.
Hang in there, the fog will list soon.
In the meantime, if you have any questions, as always, feel free to email me and I'll answer ASAP.
Monday, May 24, 2010
Edge?
Right now? No, we don't have a strong edge which means that you should pullback your position size and be diligent with your risk management. This market is very volatile which is tropical of tops, but it "seems" like we still have some upside owed to us by the market. As I pointed out last night, the positive 10 minute chart doesn't need to take place the next day, it could be a few days.
Nevertheless, we did have some decent trades today, one made nearly 19.5% in a day. We had some that lost money around 4-5% and some that gained the same. We had several that did not trigger on their limit orders, they are still very much viable trades.
Now is not the time to swing for the fences, that may change in a matter of minutes tomorrow, but right now it seems as if we will see continuation of the downside that started at 1 pm-I (remember to read Trade-Guild updates-the reversal was posted there for all to see). i have a feeling that we may see at least one more support level shaken out, but there's a chance that we see the $105 SPY area shaken out, which becomes very dangerous as this could cascade out of control under that level, which is great for our shorts, but not so good for any longs.
Tonight I will list several trades that seem to fit with the analysis and show strong probabilities if i can find them, you must understand though that 65% of the gravitational pull on any stock is first and foremost "market direction", which also means that most people spend way too much time looking at stocks when they should be studying the market and the industry groups which are the second most powerful determinant in a stocks direction.
Check back in a bit, this will take awhile -and also remember that today's trades are not dead, even ones at a loss right now. This is why I advocated last night for wide initial stops with fewer shares.
Nevertheless, we did have some decent trades today, one made nearly 19.5% in a day. We had some that lost money around 4-5% and some that gained the same. We had several that did not trigger on their limit orders, they are still very much viable trades.
Now is not the time to swing for the fences, that may change in a matter of minutes tomorrow, but right now it seems as if we will see continuation of the downside that started at 1 pm-I (remember to read Trade-Guild updates-the reversal was posted there for all to see). i have a feeling that we may see at least one more support level shaken out, but there's a chance that we see the $105 SPY area shaken out, which becomes very dangerous as this could cascade out of control under that level, which is great for our shorts, but not so good for any longs.
Tonight I will list several trades that seem to fit with the analysis and show strong probabilities if i can find them, you must understand though that 65% of the gravitational pull on any stock is first and foremost "market direction", which also means that most people spend way too much time looking at stocks when they should be studying the market and the industry groups which are the second most powerful determinant in a stocks direction.
Check back in a bit, this will take awhile -and also remember that today's trades are not dead, even ones at a loss right now. This is why I advocated last night for wide initial stops with fewer shares.
Keep An Eye Out For Those Updates
I updated Trade Guild today at 12:51 with this,
"Be prepared for an intraday pullback, it should be coming any minute as the 1 min 3C charts have gone negative.
"Be prepared for an intraday pullback, it should be coming any minute as the 1 min 3C charts have gone negative.
My Bad
I just posted and promptly removed a post called "Huge opening gap down". My chart was scrolled back several days, it is no where near as bad as I thought then, and very much in line with what I said in last night's post under the last 3 charts. so if you received that post in the email or saw it, please disregard it as i have removed it from the site.
