Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Today's Range
Yesterday was the Dow's worst day in the decline, the 1-day ATR or range yesterday from the high to low was $624.24, today's range was an amazing $626.92
KCG Follow Up
Our KCG long trade rallied well into the close up 5.44%
KCG breakout from the bull flag, closes at the high of the day, setting up a good chance for follow through buying.
30 min 3C positive divergence.
Some Short Covering?
Safe Haven Treasury Trade
TLT, one of the safe haven treasury trades is moving towards the red.
Note the crazy Ivan shakeout in the red box, at the red arrows, TLT see's the heaviest volume of the day on churning and heads down from there.
3C 10 min makes a new low/negative divergence at TLT's highs
VIX-VXX
The action in volatility is bullish..
The SPY Just Broke Persistent Resistance
Here's the 50 bar/15 min resistance I mentioned a few posts back, it has just been broken.
Resistance
Throughout almost the entire downtrend, the 50bar average on a 15 min hart has defined resistance, we are right there.
SPY 15 min Candle-Another multi-month record
The volatility is crazy, the SPY just posted another 15 min candle with gains that are higher then my intraday information going back to early May
This is the 15 min candle
Our last record was a net of 1.61 and % change of 1.36%
You can see this candle was even stronger
You can see this candle was even stronger
Market Update
The short term charts are very difficult to get any read from as they are almost perfectly in line with trade, it's the intermediate term charts that seem to be providing support.
DIA 1 min inline
DIA 5 min inline
DIA 30 min leading positive
IWM 2 min inline
IWM 15 min leading positive
QQQ 1 min in line
QQQ 15 min leading positive
SPY 1 min not even in line
SPY 5 min in line
SPY 10 min leading positive.
Market Nervousness
Some Bellwethers Showing Good Relative Strength
AAPL, MCD, AMZN, GOOG, C, DD, YHOO, NTAP, EXPE, RIMM, GMCR (WHICH HAS HELD UP VERY WELL RECENTLY), SBUX, BIDU, NVDA, COST, EBAY, WYNN, MU, JOYG, SHLD, AA, BAC
Before the Fed
As I showed in some market updates and the VXX update, I expect there to be some nervousness/selling running up to the Fed announcement, for example...
This white arrow shows a loss of 85 points in the Dow-30.
And here is the positive divergence in the VXX I showed earlier, suggesting we'd see such behavior.
However, the bigger intrady picture also shows some interesting charts...
QQQ 10 min
SPY 10 min-both leading positive.
And here is the positive divergence in the VXX I showed earlier, suggesting we'd see such behavior.
However, the bigger intrady picture also shows some interesting charts...
So Much for the Downgrade
We just saw one of the most successful 3 year auctions in over a year with indirect bidders stepping up to take down nearly 48%, up from 34.5% in July.
More From the VXX
USO Finally showing some signs of life
VIX-VXX
I fully realize it's early in the day and the defining even t will come this afternoon upon the Fed release, however, I can't help but noticing the action in the VIX/VXX.
Just like in March, the VIX Spiked yesterday and formed a Harami candlestick reversal thus far today, the red line is the SPY.
I also updated the stops last night for trades including the VXX which was originally a swing trade that I said I felt it might have more potential, which it did. However, it is showing some not so hot 3C signals today and over the last few days. The VXX, like the VIX, trades inversely to the market.
Silver to rally?
It looks like there have been some sudden shifts in SLV.
You can clearly see a distribution period in SLV that was reversed on a deep negative divergence on a false breakout of a small double top (yellow arrow)-almost what we see every time. However, what is rare on this 60 min chart is the positive divergence formed in August. Usually 3C would be telegraphing stage 4 decline and making lower lows in confirmation with a drop in prices, instead t has gone positive in a somewhat sudden shift.
Market Update
The market looks set to either consolidate in this area for a bit or even pullback intraday a bit. These are all short term 1 min charts.
DIA
IWM
QQQ
SPY
GLD Update
GLD's footing here doesn't look very sure.
Recall yesterday's bearish ascending wedge and my thought that we would see an upside breakout from the wedge (the opposite of technical analysis dogma), followed by a downside resolution on a head fake breakout. Yesterday we didn't get the breakout, at least not to any meaningful extent which would fulfill the purpose of such a breakout. This morning we have the anticipated breakout in to a negative divergence. GLD slipping below $167 could be troublesome.
KCG Follow Up
KCG was a long idea from Friday, 8/5
The pullback yesterday remained contained and KCG has shown excellent relative strength.
Original Trade Idea post
My X-over system, remained long on yesterday's pullback
3C added to the positive divergence at yesterday's lows- 30 min
15 min
10 min
I still like the potential of this trade a lot, I would view any pullback as an opportunity to evaluate an entry f you aren't already in the trade.
The pullback yesterday remained contained and KCG has shown excellent relative strength.
I still like the potential of this trade a lot, I would view any pullback as an opportunity to evaluate an entry f you aren't already in the trade.
