Speculative plays for a Quick Oil Bounce

I just looked at these for another member and they seem to show accumulation, but they are low priced speculative plays, that's part of the reason I chose them, because they can move quick in a day or two.

Just remember, these shouldn't be treated as normal positions, they are VERY speculative.

Here are the candidates: GPR, TIV and DPTR. I also wouldn't hold these too long, if they were to produce double digit gains, I'd probably book them pretty quick.

Market Update continued.

 Here's a 1 min negative divergence, I don't think this is signaling the end of a bounce at all, but rather lowering price to accumulate more.

 The 10 min is still positive.

This may take the shape of a double bottom, I wouldn't think it would be too much bigger with the NFP out on Friday, which I doubt will be good so today and tomorrow are the perfect time to run the market up a bit.

USO Update

 USO 5 min

USO 10 min.

It looks like SO is setting up for a bounce, it's still lateral largely so this divergence could continue to build, the length of the divergence ultimately will tell us more about what to expect for the bounce, but as of now, consider USO to be prepping for a move higher.

Market Bounce

 SPY 5 min

SPY 10 min

Since the divergence is to the 10 min chart and even showing up on a 15 min chart on the Q's, I think we'll see more then just an intraday bounce, I think it could very well carry into tomorrow, perhaps into the NFP release on Friday, so again, in trades you like, this is an opportunity to get a better tactical entry.

Idea follow ups part 1

 ADM idea my daily data has a glitch so here's an hourly chart, ADM is a longer term idea, but it's already broke the lower trendline, it should get a little bounce from here, as usually happens, failed breakouts fall fast. This should be a decent trending trade, but positioning is key and a decently wide enough stop to accommodate the upside shakeout that will eventually come.

 Here's ADM's failed breakout of a major triangle top.

 EDZ Trade Idea  So far, so good. This also had a downside shakeout, not huge, but enough. Watch volume today, it should increase. There will likely be a little lateral action or even a slight pullback at the next resistance zone, but you probably want to consider being in the trade by the time it breaks out, it should occur on volume and you should check with me to make sure it's confirmed. I like this ETF a lot.

 A little intraday pullback seems to be in the works, maybe an area to start building a position if you like the trade. As usual and with all of these trades, the initial stop should be wider then you would normally use, tops are volatile and until there's a nasty break, Wall St. will shake the tree trying to create uncertainty and the profits they make from that.

 FAZ Trade Idea This is the first time I've noticed the triangle in FAZ, that also means it's not far off support and this is a fairly low risk area for the trade, keep in mind the 3x leverage here. There hasn't been a downside breakout which is unusual, so I'd have a stop wide enough to accommodate one just in case. The price pattern target implication could be from $65-$85!

  FXP Trade  There's a nice breakout today!

 Intraday, I'd be looking for a pullback, a pullback to the breakout point would likely dip below it a bit, that would also be an ideal spot to put the trade on, but that's patience, it may not go there, if it does though, I'd seriously consider this one if you didn't already.

HOG is in a decent spot now for a short, it will probably pullback a little on a bounce, but it's broken the major top and the consolidation, the further it moves from the top, the harder it will be and more expensive it will be to manipulate it back up there. If the opportunity comes about to short this at $38, I'd take a serious look at it. I even like it here, but again, the stops for tops have to be wide. You could always try it here with an intraday trailing stop as well.

 This trend chanel setting on HOG captures pretty decent swings.

 This wider channel captures trends.

 IWM has retraced the ascending wedge, at least the smaller.

 There' a larger wedge in play too, IWM should make it there no problem with a bounce or two along the way. We have to be realistic about the market action, it doesn't just drop straight like a rock. Even the 2008 sell-off which was nasty had many up days within the trend, that's why I use the trend channel instead of trying to guess where to place stops or to stop out.

 Here's the bigger picture, some accumulation on the wedge and distribution was heavy. This is an example of one that reversed without the false break (or the 15% or reversals-most will have the false break component).

 IWM shorter on a 1 min chart looks like the rest of the market, it looks to be setting up a bounce. We want to welcome those bounces and use them as tactical entries for strategic positions.

TLT-go figure, an inverse H&S. This may turn out to be a good play on a break out, but volume NEEDS to pick up!

Update

We should be getting a bounce soon

 DIA

 QQQ

 SPY

 SLV

This is the wide trend channel that's held the entire move in silver, a break here would signal some serious problems. I think a bounce in the area is more likely first, we'll have to see what the tone of the underlying action is at that point.

Well....

We got the reversal day right and although the market's down decent, it's a bit quiet and you know quiet makes me uneasy.

The DIA has a 1 min positive divergence and the rest of the market is lateral so I'm guessing we'll see an intraday move up soon.

Other then that, today Interactive Brokers warned they'll be hiking silver margins, last week another broker did the same, I think it may have been TD Ameritrade, but I'm not positive.

Other then that, commodities continue to take a beating today

Whoa, ISM-NOT GOOD

We talk a lot about manufacturing input cost inflation, but the fact is the US hasn't been a manufacturing powerhouse for a long time, that leaves the bulk of our economy in the services industry. Consensus for today's ISM was 57.5 (previous 57.5), it came in at 52.8. Below 50 is contraction so we just saw a major drop and are only 2.8 points away from contraction or a recessionary environment in services. Employment was 51.9 so there's a little growth in employment, but it's dangerously close to layoffs.  New orders dropped from 64.1 to 52.7, that would be the biggest drop in history!

The culprit, commodities were cited as one and the "volatile" (so we shouldn't count it) price of fuel.

Not a good report and doesn't bode well for the NFP report Friday.

CAT Trade Action

You've heard me talk about "Crazy Ivan" shakeouts, in the white box right after the triangle, that's what one looks like. Also note support zones formed and the volume expand when they are broken by a cent (our support/resistance idea about "areas"). Thus far CAT is acting well for our short, but this too is to be viewed as a longer term trade. It's closed the gap so we may very well see an intraday bounce coming soon.

PCLN Follow Up

If you got in on the latest PCLN trade you'll want to keep an eye on some key levels coming up.

 This will likely be the first support zone, look for either a bounce here or a break then a bounce, it may cross back and forth above and below this trendline several times. If you want to know what 3C is looking like, just email me, but again, this was an entry without a lot of risk and should be viewed in a larger context. The second support line is going to be the important one, it would be the break that we don't see too often in PCLN and probably set off a rash of margin calls.

Here's what the zones look like on a daily chart. Just giving you a heads up on what to expect, of course market action can influence PCLN trade as well so keep an eye on the updates as well.

LVS continued

Here's yesterday's LVS earnings assessment.

They missed and they're down about 6% today around $43, I think I saw it trading last night around $41. I know some of you made some good  money. I think after hours is shown to be pretty consistent in seeing more extreme action. Point being, you might consider taking some off the table in your trades like this in AH, just something to consider-6-7 pm is exceptionally low volume and is probably one of the better times to take advantage of the effect.

For all of you who have followed LVS and jumped in yesterday, congratulations.

ADP comes in below consensus

Now some former critics of ADP who blast it every time it comes in above consensus, are citing this morning's weak report for a possible weak NFP report on Friday. In my mind, ADP is always off the mark. I'm not saying we will have a good or bad NFP report, I'm just saying ADP has been unreliable at best for years, so at least show some consistency in criticizing it.

More Silver Manipulation

A few weeks ago I mentioned that after hours is starting to get active for institutional money, they are using it's low volume to do some damage, in this case it was silver, AGAIN! This is starting to form a trend, and another good reason to keep stops mental and recall the flash crash posts I've put up in the past. Most of the time if you react to them, you'll get burnt, if you let them do their thing, price will usually come back or recoup most of the crash.

Here's Silver's story last night