I see some profit taking here, but nothing too extreme, personally if I had a call option I'd probably have taken the gains on momentum, but as far as equity, I don't see any strong reason to back out of it here.
Monday, July 22, 2013
URRE Update
This is one of the very few long positions I like and have liked for a while, I like it as a long term "Primary" trend position which means it's kind of a buy it and put it away type position, but today it made a strong move and I figured we'd take a quick look. In my view the price makes it somewhat speculative, I don't see this as a full size position, especially if we are going in to a market that will make this counter trend, that said, I keep it as a core position, just a bit smaller.
I view this as a large Inverse H&S bottom, most people see these in an uptrend and think they are legitimate, they miss the word, "Bottom". In any case, the move of 23+% today looks a lot like they are trying to take URRE from stage 1 base to strange 2 breakout, that's typically what that volume is about, it's an attention getter and most retail think that is smart money buying, but smart money has been in for months before today. The closing breakout was $3.11, the intraday is $3.27 so it made a new closing high for the base, but fell short of clearing all base resistance, still with that volume, it looks like they're looking for attention. Tomorrow or the next few days will tell us a lot, we're looking for a follow through day on the upside and retail to notice.
The daily 3C chart and why I like it so much and why I say smart money has been in this for a lot longer than just today.
The 60 min chart above and 30 min below confirm accumulation and especially in to the right side of the pattern as it should.
30 min
The 15 min even shows the accumulation getting URRE ready for its breakout debut.
The 5 min chart shows the same, you see, these are not accidents, they are not coincidence, they are not random. There were buyers right in front of the breakout, likely middle men to help the breakout and cash in on it, in this case Market Makers.
I see some profit taking here, but nothing too extreme, personally if I had a call option I'd probably have taken the gains on momentum, but as far as equity, I don't see any strong reason to back out of it here.
I see some profit taking here, but nothing too extreme, personally if I had a call option I'd probably have taken the gains on momentum, but as far as equity, I don't see any strong reason to back out of it here.
Low Volume
The summer doldrums? Not exactly, but nonetheless today was another day as of recent with some of the lowest volume of the year. Read in to that what you may, for me volume has been abysmal for 4 years now.
I'm not so interested in "Which way are we going", I'm more interested in when do certain assets I'm watching, take a nosedive? And out of curiosity, "What happened right around July 8th?" Something happened that changed many things, most are not right out there in the open, but it led to the market having one plan and being forced to modify that plan to reduce the timetable, it ended a carry trade almost instantly, which means a lot of positions were closed out to close that carry trade, it's also where we see some of the most extreme 3C readings I've seen. I think we'll find out, just after the fact, but it's still great for learning.
So for now, it's assets and how they behave. I have spent a lot of time talking about the reversal process. I know it seems simple, stocks are up and when they need to reverse they'll be down, but look at price charts and look for those kinds of moves, out of symmetry, you won't find many. What we do have right now is a lot of charts that are in a very nice reversal process that is symmetrical, it's the right size compared to the bottom reversal, 3C looks right and on and on. An example...
NFLX - Just because it's timely and I'm finding out that a lot of you had some really great trades in NFLX that weren't my specific idea so I'm in the mood to celebrate your succes because if I can give you information and you can make that your own trade, I'm thrilled because you are learning or have the concepts down and you aren't dependant on others, you aren't locked in to the narrow view of the retail herd, I'm thrilled to hear of your success.
NFLX has a symmetrical "reversal process", and when I say that all I'm really saying is that a reversal is NOT an event, meaning it happens right away.
I like to say, "We're like Jet-skis, we can ,maneuver and get in and out of positions easily, Wall St. are more like oil tankers, they need to make larger, arcing turns."
While this is symmetrical and proportional (you'll see each stock has its own personality and proportionality) more often than not, the bottom reversal (to the upside) is typically a tighter "U" than the top - or they can be "W" or rectangles or even triangles, but they are a process. While we're talking about it, the right side of that process is typically sharper than the left and there's frequently some sort of head fake (a shakeout or false breakout).
This is the pattern we were looking at over the weekend on NFLX, the idea was there would be a head fake move out of this triangle, a breakout to the upside that failed, this was exactly what we expected, it just wasn't as large as they have been lately, but volatility was also down today.
Here's the 3C accumulation at the bottom reversal and distribution at the top reversal, the top is nearly leading down to the former lows as price is still just off the recent highs, that's a strong leading negative divergence.
I don't have the trendlines on this chart, but the triangle is in the yellow area, the false breakout or failed breakout at the red arrow and note 3C calling it a false breakout, although we could have predicted that with probably 90% accuracy based on the chart above, when they are that bad, it's very unlikely any breakout is going to stick.
As for what I'm looking for, one would be these processes and in bellwether assets, another is for credit to take a hit. HYG (High Yield Corporate) is an arbitrage asset, it is used as one of 3 that make up Capital Context's SPY arbitrage, while we get the delayed 15 min charts, don't assume this is just a toy, this is used by institutional investors.
The point is, after 2007/2008, banks sold their credit exposure so for an institutional trader to take a position in credit (and they love High Yield for long positions) they use to go to the bank, borrow or buy/sell credit for their position, they'd normally mix a few different kinds so they don't have all of their eggs in one basket and that was that, but since there's so little left after the banks sold it, HYG became a popular alternative and because of its size/liquidity, it is tracked as an arbitrage asset of what smart money is doing, but price is one thing, what if the asset is simply being manipulated because everyone is already gone?
I said toward the end of the day I was happy to see HY Credit starting to go negative, this is the intraday short term because the longer term (large institutional positions), have long been abandoned.
This is a 15 min chart of HYG, the worst distribution by far is through July, it's not just what's inside the red box (leading negative divergence), it's the relative price levels to the left and where 3C was then vs now, that's a big problem in credit.
So Friday we saw 1 min positives in the market toward the end of the day, but they didn't go past 3 min, as I said (specifically about HYG this weekend), "The support is skin deep". HYG shows that 1 min positive Friday, but what I liked today was the EOD negative in HYG, this is what I'm looking for as far as nailing down overall market timing.
Remember I said nothing made it so far as 5 mins? This is HYG, nothing made it so far as 5 mins, meaning it's all superficial, it can still move a market intraday, but there's no real change in attitudes, it's just simple short term manipulation, tactical, not strategic.
Unfortunately I don't have a wide array of the different types of credit I can check like Financial credit vs financials, but HYG is the most important. So I was thrilled today when another site that has much more access to different types of credit said that credit fell off badly in to afternoon trade because it confirmed what 3C was showing on HYG in the afternoon, and their chart that I lifted...
This was their depiction of credit falling off vs stocks (ES), they didn't label them, but from what I've seen in the past red is HY credit and brown is IG credit, either way, all 3 are doing the same thing which is one of the important signs I'm watching for.
This is High Yield Credit in green on a daily chart with 3C...
As you can see, HY credit was dumped hard earlier in the year, it made new lows for the year in 2 days from near highs and now it's at multi-year lows, note the distribution and how it gets worse in to higher prices right before the fall.
This is HY Credit in green vs the SPX in red, note how it has NOT kept up, this is why models like CONTEXT are negative because a n institutional risk asset like HY credit should be tracking with the SPX, it's not and look at what happened to Credit on July 8th! Whatever happened, retail didn't pick up on it, all the movement was in smart money assets, but something spooked them good.
Otherwise, sentiment was down again today...
HIO was negative Friday, but you can't even see that vs. today.
FCT went even worse today.
At the same time, retail sentiment is BULLISH, the highest of the last couple of months, this is exactly the scenario we want and this is exactly why I said the move to the upside would be very strong, it needed to convince retail it's safe to buy, but institutional doesn't feel the same way, so what do you think they are doing with retail's bullish sentiment?
The gist of how we ended the day (and this is among all 4 major averages) is we saw 1 min charts move in line of price confirmation, not positive. The same 3 min charts that were positive Friday are negative today.
Instead of posting 12 (4 averages, 3 timeframes) charts to show you the exact same thing, I'll use the SPY as an example.
The positive divergences from Friday bought the SPX +.19%, pretty pathetic and reminds me of the action early in the year, but we aren't there, the drop in volatility makes me nervous because it won't last long.
1) is distribution at the highs, price never reached there agin today (sell strength), 2) this is not a positive divergence really, 3C is in leading negative position when it makes it and 3) that just brings 1 min 3C back in line with price, not positive.
The 2 min chart looks worse, leading negative and not in line at the close.
And the 3 min chart that was positive Friday goes leading negative right after the a.m. highs and never recovers.
Right now intraday Index futures are leading negative, but we have a long night and they can flip back and forth.
The Nikkei futures are difficult to make out anything, when that happens, I assume there is no strong underlying trend that is taking place at the moment so I may check it later.
Crude did lose some ground today, I expect that trend to continue, at least in USO.
Treasuries (30 year) are stronger than I think most people even dare to assume, I'd like to see them pullback a bit more and offer and entry, but when they pullback they create a positive SPY arbitrage unless HYG pulls back which could balance the Arb.
Other than that (today was kind of quiet), the VIX did give a buy signal on my DeMark inspired indicator(still no name).
The last buy signal that it gave was the bottom of the VIX back in January and before that the previous buy signal hit the August bottom to the day. The last sell signal was June 4th, the top of the VIX to the day.
The only other thing of interest was the Dominant Price / Volume Relationship with emphasis on Dominant. The indicator isn't of much use unless there's a dominant relationship among the 4 averages, it's not the averages themselves, but each and every component stock within the averages. Since today was so light on volume and small on gains, I assumed there would just be a lot of nothing, instead I found 4 dominant P/V relationships, all the same in all 4 averages.
Out of the 4 possible combinations, today's Dominant P/V relationship was the most bearish of them all, Price up / Volume down. In normal market circumstances this indication use to be about 90% accurate, since all of the manipulation the accuracy fell, but it will be interesting to see if its back, the relationship would imply a sort of 1-day overbought condition and the next day would CLOSE down so we'll see.
Other than that, I'll check futures later and I'm going to work on finishing up (or trying) to define the parameters for positive and negative divergences for a scan as I'd like to be able to run it while I'm gone on vacation this Thursday and Friday and let you know if there's anything that's really sticking out as far as trades go.
Today's only interesting thing was AAPL's 1 min positive that just shot up out of nowhere ahead of earnings (don't read too much in to that).
I'm not so interested in "Which way are we going", I'm more interested in when do certain assets I'm watching, take a nosedive? And out of curiosity, "What happened right around July 8th?" Something happened that changed many things, most are not right out there in the open, but it led to the market having one plan and being forced to modify that plan to reduce the timetable, it ended a carry trade almost instantly, which means a lot of positions were closed out to close that carry trade, it's also where we see some of the most extreme 3C readings I've seen. I think we'll find out, just after the fact, but it's still great for learning.
So for now, it's assets and how they behave. I have spent a lot of time talking about the reversal process. I know it seems simple, stocks are up and when they need to reverse they'll be down, but look at price charts and look for those kinds of moves, out of symmetry, you won't find many. What we do have right now is a lot of charts that are in a very nice reversal process that is symmetrical, it's the right size compared to the bottom reversal, 3C looks right and on and on. An example...
NFLX - Just because it's timely and I'm finding out that a lot of you had some really great trades in NFLX that weren't my specific idea so I'm in the mood to celebrate your succes because if I can give you information and you can make that your own trade, I'm thrilled because you are learning or have the concepts down and you aren't dependant on others, you aren't locked in to the narrow view of the retail herd, I'm thrilled to hear of your success.
I like to say, "We're like Jet-skis, we can ,maneuver and get in and out of positions easily, Wall St. are more like oil tankers, they need to make larger, arcing turns."
While this is symmetrical and proportional (you'll see each stock has its own personality and proportionality) more often than not, the bottom reversal (to the upside) is typically a tighter "U" than the top - or they can be "W" or rectangles or even triangles, but they are a process. While we're talking about it, the right side of that process is typically sharper than the left and there's frequently some sort of head fake (a shakeout or false breakout).
As for what I'm looking for, one would be these processes and in bellwether assets, another is for credit to take a hit. HYG (High Yield Corporate) is an arbitrage asset, it is used as one of 3 that make up Capital Context's SPY arbitrage, while we get the delayed 15 min charts, don't assume this is just a toy, this is used by institutional investors.
The point is, after 2007/2008, banks sold their credit exposure so for an institutional trader to take a position in credit (and they love High Yield for long positions) they use to go to the bank, borrow or buy/sell credit for their position, they'd normally mix a few different kinds so they don't have all of their eggs in one basket and that was that, but since there's so little left after the banks sold it, HYG became a popular alternative and because of its size/liquidity, it is tracked as an arbitrage asset of what smart money is doing, but price is one thing, what if the asset is simply being manipulated because everyone is already gone?
I said toward the end of the day I was happy to see HY Credit starting to go negative, this is the intraday short term because the longer term (large institutional positions), have long been abandoned.
Unfortunately I don't have a wide array of the different types of credit I can check like Financial credit vs financials, but HYG is the most important. So I was thrilled today when another site that has much more access to different types of credit said that credit fell off badly in to afternoon trade because it confirmed what 3C was showing on HYG in the afternoon, and their chart that I lifted...
Otherwise, sentiment was down again today...
At the same time, retail sentiment is BULLISH, the highest of the last couple of months, this is exactly the scenario we want and this is exactly why I said the move to the upside would be very strong, it needed to convince retail it's safe to buy, but institutional doesn't feel the same way, so what do you think they are doing with retail's bullish sentiment?
The gist of how we ended the day (and this is among all 4 major averages) is we saw 1 min charts move in line of price confirmation, not positive. The same 3 min charts that were positive Friday are negative today.
Instead of posting 12 (4 averages, 3 timeframes) charts to show you the exact same thing, I'll use the SPY as an example.
1) is distribution at the highs, price never reached there agin today (sell strength), 2) this is not a positive divergence really, 3C is in leading negative position when it makes it and 3) that just brings 1 min 3C back in line with price, not positive.
Right now intraday Index futures are leading negative, but we have a long night and they can flip back and forth.
The Nikkei futures are difficult to make out anything, when that happens, I assume there is no strong underlying trend that is taking place at the moment so I may check it later.
Crude did lose some ground today, I expect that trend to continue, at least in USO.
Treasuries (30 year) are stronger than I think most people even dare to assume, I'd like to see them pullback a bit more and offer and entry, but when they pullback they create a positive SPY arbitrage unless HYG pulls back which could balance the Arb.
Other than that (today was kind of quiet), the VIX did give a buy signal on my DeMark inspired indicator(still no name).
The only other thing of interest was the Dominant Price / Volume Relationship with emphasis on Dominant. The indicator isn't of much use unless there's a dominant relationship among the 4 averages, it's not the averages themselves, but each and every component stock within the averages. Since today was so light on volume and small on gains, I assumed there would just be a lot of nothing, instead I found 4 dominant P/V relationships, all the same in all 4 averages.
Out of the 4 possible combinations, today's Dominant P/V relationship was the most bearish of them all, Price up / Volume down. In normal market circumstances this indication use to be about 90% accurate, since all of the manipulation the accuracy fell, but it will be interesting to see if its back, the relationship would imply a sort of 1-day overbought condition and the next day would CLOSE down so we'll see.
Other than that, I'll check futures later and I'm going to work on finishing up (or trying) to define the parameters for positive and negative divergences for a scan as I'd like to be able to run it while I'm gone on vacation this Thursday and Friday and let you know if there's anything that's really sticking out as far as trades go.
Today's only interesting thing was AAPL's 1 min positive that just shot up out of nowhere ahead of earnings (don't read too much in to that).
NFLX Earnings
NFLX is one of our core short positions, this simply means that it is at full or intended to be at full position size and it is intended to be a longer term or trending trade, not a trading position.
So you probably hear already, NFLX beats on EPS, misses on revenues (as the headlines say, but it looks like they came right in on revenues to me). Apparently the fly in the ointment is subscriber growth and market saturation.
NFLX will hold their call at 6 p.m. so I'd expect after hours to get more intense than it is now as NFLX has settled around a loss of -6.5% or -$17. The After hours range was as low as -11%. I personally don't put much faith in after-hours numbers for analytical purposes.
As I have been talking more frequently on the subject of "best timing" vs. highest probabilities longer term, I said today that I should be concentrating more on the longer term charts or at least providing a good snap shot of those for you and you can see why NFLX is on the core short list. Please remember that there are no implied price targets here (although from time to time we can come up with something pretty close) and these are not short term trading signals, these are longer term signals giving us an idea of what the probabilities are for the longer term trend (market conditions have a lot to do with actual outcomes).
This is a great chart, it's a 3C chart that reduces noise, it's not as detailed, but major trends are much clearer. The reason I like this chart is it shows the herd mentality among smart money, it shows the accumulation area or Stage 1 and how that is done in to lower or falling prices with a fairly flat average price. It shows how price almost always surpasses where the 3C divergence first started even if price fell lower during the accumulation phase, it shows stage 2 "Mark-up" and Stage 3 distribution, which we suspected would be above the area $200-ish area because the resistance area was so well defined (you'd have to read the "Understanding Head Fakes" articles to understand this).
The 60 min chart shows the area we expected price to move above and therefore waited for that event before taking a position or large position short NFLX. The accumulation to push prices past the $200 area can be seen on the more detailed chart.
The 30 min chart shows where distribution went from strong relative to stronger leading and it's right around that Jul8th area where so many events occurred including the end of the AUD/JPY carry trade which can have a large effect on equity as the carry trade is closed out.
The 10 min chart has more detail, there's a small accumulation area, this is when we started to get bullish and suspect the market was headed higher on June 21st, 1-day before the ultimate market lows, that accumulation in NFLX (as well as market wide) is seen here, but it's not enough for a trend this long, I believe there was to be an initial pullback around the 8th and something happened very quickly that changed all dynamics and sped up the entire process with VERY strong distribution in the period AFTER the 8th.
We'll see what the CC has to say, but I'm looking at NFLX as a longer term position.
So you probably hear already, NFLX beats on EPS, misses on revenues (as the headlines say, but it looks like they came right in on revenues to me). Apparently the fly in the ointment is subscriber growth and market saturation.
NFLX will hold their call at 6 p.m. so I'd expect after hours to get more intense than it is now as NFLX has settled around a loss of -6.5% or -$17. The After hours range was as low as -11%. I personally don't put much faith in after-hours numbers for analytical purposes.
As I have been talking more frequently on the subject of "best timing" vs. highest probabilities longer term, I said today that I should be concentrating more on the longer term charts or at least providing a good snap shot of those for you and you can see why NFLX is on the core short list. Please remember that there are no implied price targets here (although from time to time we can come up with something pretty close) and these are not short term trading signals, these are longer term signals giving us an idea of what the probabilities are for the longer term trend (market conditions have a lot to do with actual outcomes).
We'll see what the CC has to say, but I'm looking at NFLX as a longer term position.
NFLX Update
Some of you had options positions in NFLX and took gains on that deep momentum move down, I want to say I agree with that move 100%. I'd rather re-enter a new trade on a bounce than watch those gains disappear.
So NFLX "may" try this again, but in reality NFLX did what we were expecting in concept, we're use to seeing some pretty large head fake moves, but as far as the concept, it did it today so I don't know how far this gats, whether it's just a part of the reversal process or it makes another head fake move. The bottom line are the longer term charts, the highest probability trend are so horrible, I really should spend more time on those.
The process itself is proportionate and symmetrical, I have no problems with it at all. The move was suppose to be above the triangle, a failed breakout, if you look, we had that, a breakout move outside the triangle that failed and price did what it is suppose to do in a head fake situation like that, it fell fast and hard (consider the scale as well).
This is all that should really matter as far as the big picture is concerned, this should be 75% of our considerations, the rest are tactical (entries).
The 1 min chart saw some sharp positive upside in 3C, it is still a 1 min chart though.
The 2 min showed the same, because it was on both charts so quickly, I'd assume it was a fairly large underlying move considering the timeframe.
And the 3 min seals what I said above.
There's nothing but the negative on the 5 min so I'd say it's capped right about there. If you look at the first chart, it could very well just be a continuation of the rounding process, but in case it pops out, we'll see if there's another put or short trade.
So NFLX "may" try this again, but in reality NFLX did what we were expecting in concept, we're use to seeing some pretty large head fake moves, but as far as the concept, it did it today so I don't know how far this gats, whether it's just a part of the reversal process or it makes another head fake move. The bottom line are the longer term charts, the highest probability trend are so horrible, I really should spend more time on those.
XLF, HYG, shorter term charts are coming down.
This is one of the most important parts of what I'm looking for, sometimes its there immediately, sometimes it takes some time for various reasons, today I'd guess that assets (especially Industry groups) falling apart after they did their thing would not be helpful for those that did not like QQQ for instance.
What is showing up now is increased negative signals on XLF, this is what I was wanting and hoping to see, when they are sharp, that's where XLF becomes a high probability/low risk set up.
In addition, HYG's important charts are destroyed, there doesn't seem to be any l;arge positions long HYG, but intraday it's useful to manipulate the market, so I've been looking for intraday charts to join their longer term cousins and that is starting in HYG.
What is showing up now is increased negative signals on XLF, this is what I was wanting and hoping to see, when they are sharp, that's where XLF becomes a high probability/low risk set up.
In addition, HYG's important charts are destroyed, there doesn't seem to be any l;arge positions long HYG, but intraday it's useful to manipulate the market, so I've been looking for intraday charts to join their longer term cousins and that is starting in HYG.
GOOG Charts
The 3C trend is pretty darn clear, a lot of charts are like this when comparing the second leg up to the first, even when the second leg up has higher prices.
Take a look at GOOG
I'm likely going to enter a put position with GOOG very shortly, take a look at your charts, I'll try to get mine up ASAP, it may be after the close as I'm trying to see what the broader market is up too, but I do like GOOG either short or Puts in this area, I'd consider it to be more of a longer term core position than just a trade.
AMZN
I'll put up charts of AMZN later, the point I wanted to make is AMZN is in that area of an overall top, we expected >$300 to be a psychological magnet and it was.
The reversal "process" looks really good in AMZN, it's in the right place. There's a lot of intraday volatility and I think chances are better than 50/50 that it makes another move toward the top of the "Rounding" process.
I like to try to get timing as close as I can with very strong signals, that's where options come in. However if I was someone who maybe only had a few chances a day to look at the market and I had good risk management and wasn't concerned with hitting the top, but more concerned with having a good position that a month or several months down the road would be doing well for me, AMZN is in the spot or area.
This is where the market gets very difficult for us particularly because we have to choose between the "Best signals" possible or perhaps missing the trade.
In every other situation except when the market is as ugly as it is now and could take out several weeks (or more) of trade with a single gap down, I'd be patient and say, "If this doesn't do what I want, I'll just wait for the next". Now that luxury is not there so much and it becomes a more difficult choice.
Phasing in to positions is an option, your risk management plan has to be in place first. If you are watching the market every minute like me, then entering an AMZN right now will probably drive you nuts, but if you aren't watching every intraday swing, it's a lot easier to handle.
I'll get charts up later, but the disparity between short/intraday positives and long leading negatives that are huge is growing very wide.
This isn't so much a "I want to be as right as I can, I want to show patience" as it is, "I don't want to miss great trades because I'm lost in the lines" (too myopic).
The reversal "process" looks really good in AMZN, it's in the right place. There's a lot of intraday volatility and I think chances are better than 50/50 that it makes another move toward the top of the "Rounding" process.
I like to try to get timing as close as I can with very strong signals, that's where options come in. However if I was someone who maybe only had a few chances a day to look at the market and I had good risk management and wasn't concerned with hitting the top, but more concerned with having a good position that a month or several months down the road would be doing well for me, AMZN is in the spot or area.
This is where the market gets very difficult for us particularly because we have to choose between the "Best signals" possible or perhaps missing the trade.
In every other situation except when the market is as ugly as it is now and could take out several weeks (or more) of trade with a single gap down, I'd be patient and say, "If this doesn't do what I want, I'll just wait for the next". Now that luxury is not there so much and it becomes a more difficult choice.
Phasing in to positions is an option, your risk management plan has to be in place first. If you are watching the market every minute like me, then entering an AMZN right now will probably drive you nuts, but if you aren't watching every intraday swing, it's a lot easier to handle.
I'll get charts up later, but the disparity between short/intraday positives and long leading negatives that are huge is growing very wide.
This isn't so much a "I want to be as right as I can, I want to show patience" as it is, "I don't want to miss great trades because I'm lost in the lines" (too myopic).
Market Update - Charts
The market charts and the reason for them made a lot of sense as of the close Friday, some of the assets did what was intended like XLX, some did not like NFLX or as of now, the QQQ.
I can't say for sure, but as I alluded to earlier, the market looks so fractured in these intraday 1-3 minute and some 5 min timeframes because certain assets have done what they needed to do and certain ones haven't.
This latest positive starting on the 1 min timeframe was very obvious in AAPL, like I said last night, the Q's would enjoy any support AAPL can throw their way, but still even as the 1 min is strong, there's NOTHING on AAPL 2 min or 3 min for that matter.
Here are the market averages, the Index futures have positive divergences on all 1 min charts EXCEPT for the R2K (TF), the 5 min charts have leading negative divergences on all Indexes except the QQQ.
At this point I have to just keep watching, but I'm assuming assets like XLF that are going negative (not as negative as I'd like to see) are treading water so to speak until their cousins can catch up, some I doubt will like NFLX, but stranger things have happened.
The other interesting part is SO FAR, most assets have not seen anything beyond 1 min intraday strength.
DIA in 1-2 minutes are mixed, but there's no trend there, 3 min seems to be closest to a trend and then...
5 min and this is serious damage in a small area.
IWM 1 min is positive, not as positive as it looks, much of that is inline, but a big improvement over earlier action today.
IWM 2 min is really barely positive, this isn't something I'd normally stop for like that AAPL chart, but I have to show you.
At 5 min where it really starts to get serious beyond intraday action it has turned pretty negative in a short period of time. Although this doesn't have the look at all, often you'll see positives through out the day in a 1 min chart that lifts an average to VWAP intraday and that's where heavy distribution will occur and you'll have a 5 min chart look like that, the intraday charts are just to get the asset in to the selling (or buying ) range.
QQQ 1 min with Friday's late day strength, there's VERY little here, AAPL seems to be the most bullish thing intraday for the Q's. The best you can say about this chart is that it has managed to stay largely in line.
QQQ 3 min is large enough from Friday that I'd think it would stand a good chance of filling the gap, there's deterioration now, but it's really not "That bad.
The sizes and shapes of the reversal processes in the Q's are right, the bottoms are tighter and smaller, the tops are wider and rounder, the 3C signals on this 10 min chart are perfect as well for the price action
SPY 1 min is seeing that positive I mentioned after being distributed at intraday highs earlier.
The 3 min chart though is not seeing any of that strength migrate over (at least not as of yet), in fact it looks worse that it did Friday, significantly.
I can't say for sure, but as I alluded to earlier, the market looks so fractured in these intraday 1-3 minute and some 5 min timeframes because certain assets have done what they needed to do and certain ones haven't.
This latest positive starting on the 1 min timeframe was very obvious in AAPL, like I said last night, the Q's would enjoy any support AAPL can throw their way, but still even as the 1 min is strong, there's NOTHING on AAPL 2 min or 3 min for that matter.
Here are the market averages, the Index futures have positive divergences on all 1 min charts EXCEPT for the R2K (TF), the 5 min charts have leading negative divergences on all Indexes except the QQQ.
At this point I have to just keep watching, but I'm assuming assets like XLF that are going negative (not as negative as I'd like to see) are treading water so to speak until their cousins can catch up, some I doubt will like NFLX, but stranger things have happened.
The other interesting part is SO FAR, most assets have not seen anything beyond 1 min intraday strength.
Quick Market Update-Charts to follow
I'm seeing some 1 min market average charts improve like SPY, IWM, of course there was AAPL.
Damage on 2 and 3 min charts from what was already set up in to the weekend has been down so I don't know if these 1 min charts go further or they are perhaps an end of day ramp?
I'm trying to watch arbitrage assets to see when there's a flood out of those, there is continued movement in to VXX/UVXY, I need to check TLT.
Many positions I haven't called out for an entry yet like XLF, even though it is above the area I was looking for and it is losing positive 1-3 min 3C charts, it's not screaming negative like the AAPL 1 min chart has a screaming positive signal..
Charts to follow.
It's just like a meat grinder and each asset is on its own.
Damage on 2 and 3 min charts from what was already set up in to the weekend has been down so I don't know if these 1 min charts go further or they are perhaps an end of day ramp?
I'm trying to watch arbitrage assets to see when there's a flood out of those, there is continued movement in to VXX/UVXY, I need to check TLT.
Many positions I haven't called out for an entry yet like XLF, even though it is above the area I was looking for and it is losing positive 1-3 min 3C charts, it's not screaming negative like the AAPL 1 min chart has a screaming positive signal..
Charts to follow.
It's just like a meat grinder and each asset is on its own.
Opening VERY Small AAPL SPEC CALL
This is weekly, July 26th expiration, this is why.
This does not move beyond the 1 min chart, but perhaps this is a signal that the moves tried today (succeeded in assets like XLF, but not the Q's or NFLX) are not quite finished.
This will be half a normal size.
This will be half a normal size.
USO / DTO Update
I've been following oil for a while, stayed patient because of fundamental events in the MENA region, but recently entered USO $38 puts and DTO long equity.
I\Several charts look like crude (or at least USO) is ready to turn down and we've seen that in some price action, which surprises me on today of all days as there have been VIOLENT clashes (not the more peaceful marches) between anti and pro Morsi supports with Egyptian tanks on the street, all in Tahir Square where it all started. Apparently this latest round was flared up when Morsi supported were called on to attack the US Embassy for "helping to ouster Morsi".
In any case, I want to keep a close eye on both of these, but here are some interesting downside changes in the charts, they are also present on Brent Futures, but I didn't have time to capture another 5 charts.
USO 60 min is what really made me feel more comfortable with opening those positions.
The 10 min chart has been negative, but nothing like this.
Intraday the 2 min is leading, it looks like there's a small head fake-failed breakout attempt in yellow.
And the 5 min chart looks even more serious.
DTO is the 2x leveraged Oil short ETF I also opened a position in for longer term trends, the 30 min chart is similar to USO's 60m.
Intraday the rounding or reversal process (vs a reversal event with a sudden shift and a "V" like bottom) looks right, the same little head fake (it's proportionate to the size of the bottom) is clear.
Again sharp movement in the 10 min chart, positive for DTO.
And even the 15 min chart.
With events on the ground I will be setting several alerts, but if there were no events on the ground, I'd say USO has reached it's turning point and heading down.
I\Several charts look like crude (or at least USO) is ready to turn down and we've seen that in some price action, which surprises me on today of all days as there have been VIOLENT clashes (not the more peaceful marches) between anti and pro Morsi supports with Egyptian tanks on the street, all in Tahir Square where it all started. Apparently this latest round was flared up when Morsi supported were called on to attack the US Embassy for "helping to ouster Morsi".
In any case, I want to keep a close eye on both of these, but here are some interesting downside changes in the charts, they are also present on Brent Futures, but I didn't have time to capture another 5 charts.
With events on the ground I will be setting several alerts, but if there were no events on the ground, I'd say USO has reached it's turning point and heading down.
