More on PG

PG missed earnings bad this week, it was one of my earnings calls with 3C. Why in the world would a company that misses so badly do so much better the other stocks in better earnings position?

PG did and still has the long-term remnants of distribution from earlier this week. Look at yesterday in 3C from 1 pm to 3 pm-selling, a negative divergence getting ready for the drop

Now look at 3C this afternoon-straight up with price-program trade! Look at BOP switch from red to green and at what time? 1 p.m. Finally Money Stream at the bottom shows the positive accumulation into the afternoon rally but is still lower then a few days ago because the net/net acc/dist equation is there's still more distribution then accumulation in the stock. This is pure and simple manipulation designed for one thing and it's not even to benefit PG-just to move the market off it's extreme losses.

All ready on the right track

I took the Dow-30, sorted them by price-that's how it's weighted, then looked for a gap down and a close up. The top half of the list showed the winners, in other words, the most expensive stocks that would move the index up the most, such as MCD, were the ones that closed up. When you got to the less expensive Dow stocks, they tended to close down. Furthermore, many of them showed that pattern of no pullback which is a pretty clear indication of program trading.

So it's going to be the most expensive stocks and they needed to close up to make a difference.

Here's PG-the Dow's #2

Note PG opened down just like any other stock after that report. Then at 1 pm it changed course. Note how it trades in the early morning, there's some ups and downs on the 10 minute chart, but then look how it trades in the rally-no ups and downs-this is program trading, this is what we are looking for. 6 of the 7 biggest stocks on the index all exhibited this behavior-I don't mean 7 of the biggest-I mean 1,2,3,4,5,6,7-in that order, the most expensive stocks and it was #6 that didn't quite make the cut. This is the first step, the first piece of the puzzle.

You can help

This is a big deal, a big event and there lies within a big opportunity.

Here's what I'm thinking and anyone wishing to contribute to the ideas, email me at BT46n2@gmail.com

Being that more stocks closed down then up, they had to invest in the right ones. I figure from looking at 3C, notice was sent out around noon time, that doesn't give managers a lot of time to pick and choose. They needed to move the market up and fast and not with a buckshot approach as we see, more stocks fell then rose. So I think they went after the heaviest weighted stocks in an index. That's the first step, figuring out which stocks can move an index the most-they will be big cap or high volume stocks. They will also see a volume surge from noon onward and should close up for the day. It's probable they will have high BETA values, at least 2 or more.

They should have reacted like the market, down on the open, but they needed to close up on the day. Stocks that popped off the open are probably not the ones being it seems that notice went out at 12 unless notice went out before 12 and 12 was the rally point, but if that were the fact, then why not do it yesterday? This is an unknown, but I'm operating from the assumption that it happened at 12 being there was distribution before that.

Institutional money knew which ones to hit and being they didn't need to open themselves up to more long exposure then absolutely needed to get the job done-given market conditions, they would have been precise about it. However, they have to hit every index, so there will be quite a few stocks. The stocks should be option-able and they may have seen a big move on Call options to get people thinking and buying as well when they see big call volume.

Once I have a list, I'll check 3C and make sure, the we'll see what they did at the end of day-did they sell short some of the investment into the last minutes? 3C 1 min will show that.

So if you have ideas, let me know. This is a big job and I have to work fast, any insight or help is greatly appreciated. We need to get in front of the game as it just changed real quick.

**One other thing-the afternoon rally will have few if any pullbacks in these stocks we're looking for

What An Amazing Day

First I show you with a 90+% success rate in calling leaked earnings. Next, in my Wednesday night Trade Guild post, while everyone else was vacillating back and forth between options volume and all kinds of arguments, I went out and said "The jobs report will be bad, the market won't react well"

None of this is my expertise in anything other then reading 3C which follows the footprints of institutional money which was distributing in the run up to earnings so clearly, data is leaked everywhere; this market is manipulated from top to bottom.

Today I saw something I haven't seen since the Plunge Protection Team was active in the markets in late 2008-the only thing is the Fed didn't announce anything really. Clearly, this was not retail traders that saved this market today from total collapse. Money poured in and not quietly either, quite openly. The Vix even dropped today!

So what's going on? I don't know yet, but something is happening. While I warned in today's update that the divergence was on the  5 min chart and would probably be more then just a swing bounce that is normal, they even managed to move the 10 min chart. Look at this!

At 1:04 p.. I published the update below, where the white square is. I've never seen BOP at the bottom act so consistently, it's usually very spotty and that's why I don't use it much, but it went from clear selling to buying right around my update. And look at 3C in blue, a leading divergence on the 1 -min which led to my note.

The 5 min chart is even printing a leading divergence at the close!

The 10 min chart which was leading down made it to neutral or price confirmation.

The 15 min charts are mixed.

Here's the volume...

There was no need for 3C today, their actions weren't secretive-they were wide open in full view of the market. Institutional money-or someone, perhaps government, panicked today, but not in the way you think. they saw the sell-off, it was solid an they jumped right in and reversed it. Someone has a very real reason they didn't want this market down, at least not today.

Look at the economy-the jobs report, worse then expected. The GDP-a nightmare, earnings today from USPS, Housing, Retail Sales, Personal Income, Berkshire, AIG, BOEING-all horrible, yet someone jumped in there today and expended a lot of capital. Even with today's close and the afternoon rally-for every 2 stocks that closed up, 5 closed down, so there was some very specific, targeted investments today in the companies that have the heaviest weighting in the market averages. Close down volume up was the dominant P/V relationship.

This was no ordinary recovery in the market, not at all. Only open buying like that can move the 3C longer timeframes that quickly.

So what am I thinking.... I think the Fed made some phone calls today and made some promises about what they'd say or do at next week's policy meeting. This reminds me of some of the stories in Jesse Livermoore-Wold's Greatest Stock Trader when JP Morgan said he wouldn't do anything in the market on the long side until Jesse closed out his shorts, he reportedly "plead with him".

Now a few facts, before today their was a widespread belief that the market had been rallying this week-do you realize the SPY was up .08% between Monday and Thursday?

Obama is taking a huge hit and with him all the Democrats in the midterm elections. I think our October surprise will be coming next week. This means we are going to have to make some changes this week, I'm not sure exactly what or where, I have to think this through, figure out where the money went and what will have to be done to recoup it-those are the trades we'll have to look at.

I will say this, I think we're onto something. I think most traders are scratching their heads and saying "Oh well, I'll take it", but there's going to be a cost somewhere, there always is, now to figure this thing out. Guess what I'll be doing this weekend?

Another intraday bounce

3C 1-5 minute is telegraphing an intraday bounce, this one could last a bit, maybe the $112 level, but the 10 min is in a still deepening leading negative divergence so this is just regular volatility, it's nothing that should change the course of the Damn that is springing leaks all over the place. Just thought some of you intraday traders might want to know.

Resistance levels on the SPY
$111.30
$111.60-$111.67
$112.00-$112.10
$112.40

WOULDN'T IT BE GREAT....

If we could just use 3C to place bets-just up or down, yes or no bets! Unfortunately, it's always more complicated then that, but 3C's call at least, was right on the money, and not the money from all those new jobs that weren't created.

The market is now showing a substantial gap down, we'll just have to see what happens next, but I've been saying bad report and a move down so that's what I'm expecting. I'll keep you updated until about 2:30 today as I have a meeting at 3:00.

Enjoy the ride!