Then you'd know that as I explained in the long-winded post, the most likely outcome today would be an intraday penetration above the gap or a close above it, which is set up, as all false moves have been, to take people's money and shares and provide the fuel for the next reversal.
I could be wrong, but I don't think the series of accurate calls that we've had which include the one last week about this bounce with the target while the market was still in decline. The bounce was right on, the target was right on and last night's "most likely outcome" was right on. If you look tonight at today's move, you will see that this does not look like traders excited in anticipation of earnings, but rather the oversold bounce as I called it last week. The stats back that up.
I know that this is a nerve racking experience and your instincts are telling you to run the other way, that's what Wall Street counts on to make it all work for them. At the same time it would be highly egotistical and irresponsible of me to say that "I know what the market is doing, follow me". We need to have contingency plans even if we think the chance of needing them is 1 %. So next week we'll take a look at AA and the others announcing and we'll see if there's a chance of this pendulum swinging higher and what we need to do to counter balance that scenario. I'm also going to try to show you how crooked Wall Street is and give you some predictions on the outlook and response to companies' earnings. Just email me your favorite stock reporting a day or so before and I'll look for the tell tale signs of a leak and show you so you understand how rigged this game is and how we can use it to our advantage. We might even make a few quick bucks on the leaks.
Otherwise I think the analysis from last night is solid, the bounce (despite the headline gains) is more pathetic then anything seen on the same chart I posted at Trade Guild tonight, click on the chart and read the captions and you'll understand.
I'm probably going to release a few trades that look manipulated, we're going to have the opportunity to put another money making tool in the box and see how well it works. I'll also release the highest probability shorts going into next week.
Remember this about earnings:
1) more often then not there's a bullish upside bias right before earnings
2) sentiment counts more than anything else, even the best earnings and guidance are no match for market sentiment
3) Earnings aren't about what you did, they are about the guidance of "what will you do next qtr. ? "
So if a company does fantastic this last quarter, it can actually be a bad thing as traders will say, "I don't think you'll top that" and if that's the case, there's no reason to hold the company or buy it-they get sold off.
And last, remember this, everything you see and here from Wall Street is deceit; it's not just the little penny stocks that are liars, think Global Crossing, MCI, Enron, all the banks that said "We don't have anymore exposure to the housing crisis" until the next quarter's write-off's became public.
And....Don't fall in love with stocks, fall in love with your mate, chocolate, whatever, stocks are a tool to get from A to B and that's it.
Again I stress putting time into risk management planning. There are a lot of resources at Trade-Guild. I was published and won an award for my risk management planning.
So here's what we're going to do for anyone who wants to participate. If it's a rainy weekend and you want to win a month of membership to WOWS, send me your ideas and plans about risk management so that I can share them with everyone else here, I won't disclose any personal information (unless you ok it) and may edit them for clarity and length. Which ever submission brings something really exciting and useful to the table will be the winner (chosen by me).
I also want to bring to your attention to the fact that there are a lot of talented traders here, I see it by your emails. There is also a comment section below each post and a thread can run as long as you want it to. Why don't we all help each other out and share our ideas and opportunities we see in the market day to day. Don't be shy, no one is going to look down their nose at someone who is contributing to other's success.
Have a great weekend and think about getting involved!
5 years ago
