Monday, March 28, 2011

The Market is close to unchanged

However, the QQQ just triggered my Friday alert, breaking support that I expected to be broken Friday. One event that may be causing the market to give up the gains today so quickly, other then the observed #c 15 min negative divergence, is a report from Reuters that plutonium has been found in 5 different locations around the Fukushima reactor complex. The nature of the fuels used in the reactors suggest that the only one to use MOX fuels and thus to release plutonium is reactor 3, it's the only one that was upgraded in 2010 with MOX fuel. This strongly suggests that reactor 3's core has indeed been damaged and breached.

Some other observations and facts.

The Japanese government and TEPCO have been rather opaque in releasing accurate, timely assessments of the situation with reports often conflicting or coming out in admissions after a contrary report.

There is now evidence of radioactive pollution at least 1 mile out to sea, most probably having something to do with their use of seawater in trying to cool the reactor cores and spent fuel rod pools.

The Japanese culture is very sensitive to anything having to do with contamination (you've seen them running around in normal times, busy on the streets wearing particle masks), nuclear events are a matter of particular sensitivity due to Japan's history in World War II. Japan is also largely dependent on coastal fishing for food. Even if contamination is limited to a mile out to sea, the lack of accurate, timely and forthcoming information is sure to be causing extreme doubts and distrust in the Japanese psyche. I'm starting to wonder if the food crisis there is going to reach epidemic levels?

Surely the breach of the core of reactor 3 is not going to help the situation. I also wonder how long before the world's 3rd largest economic hub is a literal ghost town?

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