This is what I have written and referenced several times this week as the major averages have been caught within the bear flag,
"Thus far, that analysis has been correct so we are still in wait and watch mode as the title of the post I quoted above was, "Bounces are Scary" and the first sentence was "And they are meant to be"."
Thus far, we haven't seen that "scary" bounce, just a flag develop which is especially well defined in the QQQ and SPY.
Yesterday at the end of the day, I posted some very negative, very nasty divergences that started near 3 p.m. So my expectations for today and probably tomorrow which timing-wise with the weekend would make perfect sense, is to see that divergence develop INTO HIGHER PRICES. Many times a min divergence will change the market's course intraday, not so much yesterday and certainly it didn't this morning, which hints at the fact that the 1 min divergence is not a market maker bump in the road intraday, but more probably the cycle of distribution which should continue into higher prices.
That gives us the "scary" component as there's not much reason for a bounce now-a-days unless it shakes out traders and creates volume, bull or bear traps, etc.
Thus far on the open, there's been no confirmation of the gap higher, a sort of continuation of yesterdays's late day 3C activity. This course suggests to me that the cycle is entering the distribution/ending stages, which occur into higher prices.
So that's what I'm looking for, these divergences to build throughout the short to intermediate charts without pushing prices down as they form. This can happen in a day in rare instances, but two days is perfect which would take the institutional money out of the market before the unpredictable weekend comes.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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