Swing Trade Idea BPT (short)

I have fond memories of BPT, I bought it back in 2000 for $11 and took t for a long ride, collecting a great dividend around 12%. I thought I was smart when I sold it and then watched it go on to double from where I sold it in the $65 area. As I remember from back in 2000, although I haven't confirmed this recently, the BPT site had about 10 years of oil left in it, I don't know what the situation is now. There's still a hefty dividend of 8.2% so you don't want to be caught holding this short when it goes ex-dividend.

 Here's the weekly chart, with a current large triangle formation, typically these are tops.

 My trendlines may look a little of kilter here, but I'll show you why I drew them this way.

 This is the 3C daily chart, note negative divergences at the red arrows and positive at the white arrows. There were two head fake moves (at the yellow arrows), the first above the triangle, which was met with a 3C negative divergence and the second just before the current uptrend started with a downside shakeout on a positive divergence. This chart shows you why head fakes are important and how they influence price acton.

 Here's the current breakout from the triangle, which I suspect is another head fake setting up the downside and probably making for a good swing trade. The green arrows are the trend, the yellow arrows are noise in the trend. It was just this week we saw the first consecutive pair of noise candles in the trend and noise, while it is not always important, most often precedes a trend reversal on a swing basis. The red arrow is the back of the uptrend broken. You can also see the last 3 candles of the uptrend each showed diminished momentum with smaller bodies until the last day formed a Doji which in itself is a common reversal signal.

 Here's the negative divergence on the hourly chart

 And distribution on the 15 min chart

 The reversal/negative divergence on the 10 min chart

 The same on the 5 min chart

 And on the 1 min chart. Thats' a lot of confirmation.

My Trend Channel has worked well as a swing trade stop-loss guide, even though we have some signals that were earlier then the Trend Channel. However I show it as one of two stops I would consider, the first at the Trend Channel around the $116.00 area, that's if we don't get a gap-fill and the second above the highs of the reversal day at $117.72. Even using the higher stop, the risk on the trade is approximately 2.7%. If this is the false breakout used to distribute as I suspect, then there's a good chance of a water-fall type sell-off making the trade worthy of consideration.