Tuesday, April 15, 2014

QQQ Follow Up

So as of yesterday we were looking for a few things to happen before entering some new positions and I'll likely be throwing some other ideas out there. Here's a quick look at what I liked about the Q's.

 This is the small "W" created yesterday that gave us the Daily Candle Tweezer bottom, it was obvious support and a head fake run on stops below it was what we were looking for to enter calls today as I prefer to enter them on weakness/lower premiums.

We also needed a reversal process, since the head fake was so small, the reversal process didn't need to be very big as they are proportional.
 This is the QQQ reversal process.

On a daily chart the idea was yesterday's "Tweezer Bottom" didn't look like the final reversal because typically volume would be higher than the day before which it wasn't yesterday, as of this capture volume is right about on par with a couple of hours left, I can easily see volume up and a possible Hammer reversal candle which would be a strong short term reversal signal, they don't have much in the way of implied targets, just that the trend will change.

I drew a possible scenario for the EOD daily candle in yellow which will be on higher volume than yesterday making such a bullish reversal candle much more effective.

We also needed to see positive divergences in the head fake area which we see on this QQQ 1 min chart as well as others.

 The 3 min chart is leading positive at the head fake stop run and we already know that charts out to 15 min are positive for the Q's.

As for some confirming indications, the VIX futures move opposite the market...
 The intraday VIX futures have a negative divegrence here on the 1 min

 And a 5 min divegrence that is almost the mirror opposite of the  NQ 5 min chart so that's good confirmation in an unrelated asset (somewhat unrelated).

 NQ 1 min also shows a leading positive 1 min at the head fake area so Index futures are confirming the averages as well.


And the NQ 5 min stayed leading positive through the entire episode, I couldn't ask for much more for an entry.

I'm going to see what else may look decent out there.

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