Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Second Half of USO Trade Setting Up

On July 14th I posted this USO trade idea/s, USO Trade/s Set-up described as...

"Initially I was looking at USO as a long/bounce trade and I still think there's a decent long bounce trade there, but the bigger trade is shorting the bounce as you get a better entry at much lower risk, of course there needs to be a reason to short USO. "

The first part of the trade (the smaller trade), the bounce is off and that's looking like it's just about done, I'd be taking gains off the table personally at this point.

The second half is looking like it is setting up, but there is something I'd like to see to make the trade more interesting.
 USO 30 min positive divegrence, the 14th is when the trade idea/s were posted, the first being a bounce and the second shorting in to the bounce. The 30 min chart is just starting to show deterioration.

The more detailed 15 min chart already shows a significant amount of deterioration in USO, I confirmed very similar charts for /CL (Brent Futures).

 We'd expect the shorter charts to be negative as well such as this 5 min

And intraday the divergences are picking up downside traction as seen above on a 2 min and below on a 1 min...

 These are best used for timing at this point.

This is the daily chart, we were 1-day off the bottom when the trade idea for the bounce was posted so there should be gains in the trade. I'd like to see a gap up and confirm distribution on that gap and open a put at that point, sorry, but I'm not that interested in the trade without some leverage.

What we'd want to see by the close is something like a bearish engulfing candle and I think there's room in the reversal process for another day in the area. We'd also want to see volume higher than the previous day, however for a put entry, it would have to be early so we'd need to confirm distribution on a gap up so if you are interested I'd set price alerts above recent intraday highs so you know if we have a gap up immediately so we can check it and enter a put or leveraged inverse ETF.

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