Friday, October 17, 2014

Bird's Eye View

I'm posting this because I want everyone to be able to see what I see so you understand not only 3C, but why I am looking for what I', looking for, what my reasoning is, etc.

The past few days I've been saying that we have some monstrously strong longer term (30-60 min) positive divergences in a base that extends back to the start date of about Oct. 2nd, suggesting the ultimate upside move is well above the Oct. 2nd levels.

However I've also been saying that we need just a little more near term work in the early timeframes of 1-5 minutes generally before I'm comfortable taking on more long risk.

Right now this is for your information and understanding, although it may lead to some action such as taking some short term gains off the table if it looks like a pullback, which I do expect, is very high probability with good timing as I can just re-enter those same positions at better prices next week.

For now, here's the shorter term view of the weakness because we didn't get that work done in the averages in early timeframes and the longer term strength view, which suggests to me a pullback , finishing the short term chart work and heading significantly higher.

While I haven't gone through all indicators and assets with a fine tooth comb, this is certainly enough confirmation. First our very accurate SPX/RUT Ratio and VIX term structure...
 Short term, this is 1 min intraday with today to the right, you can see the negative or non-conirmation in the SPX/RUT and VIX term structure is falling away from inversion, only .01 above inversion, the buy signal, this to me is nothing more than a short term signal.

The longer term and bigger story is this 30 min chart...
 The overall signal is very strong, very large, the VIX term Structure Inversion is large, this suggests near term weakness and longer term strength as in the bounce we expect, I think it's a direct result of the work in the intraday 1-5 min timeframes not finishing up.

 SPY 3 min negative short term...

SPY 15 min positive longer term

QQQ 2 min short term negative

QQQ 15 min longer term positive

IWM 3 min negative

IWM 60 min longer term positive.

FAS 2 min negative

FAS 15 min positive

HYG 1 min negative

HYG 10 min positive.

Now you probably get a feel for why I've been looking for those short term charts to fill out with more support and why I expect a pullback as we have recently been talking about, especially in the IWM.

I think its a great opportunity for those who want to get involved to do so on your terms with stronger signals, I don't think the longer term ones will fail, but rather support the short term signals getting that work done.

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