Tuesday, October 21, 2014

HYG Support Giving Out

Last week we saw accumulation in HYG, High Yield Corporate Credit,  there's only one reason to accumulate HYG and that's for short term market manipulation, this was one of the ways we knew the market would be heading up. 

Right now, that support via HYG's price , which is what the Algo's cue off of is still there as it's leading the SPX... "Credit leads, stocks follow"...
 HYG leading the SPY...

However the distribution that has started in HYG is now starting to migrate to some more serious timeframes, taken with that sharp "V" base and this move looks a lot like the typical short shakeout, although we still have issues such as this is where retail wants to be short so we can move back toward the base lows ad put in a "W" that will create a strong, face ripping rally or we hobble along with the weak base support we have right now as intraday charts of the averages are seeing very sharp deterioration intraday and at this point, that's as far as those divergences can go, meaning they are as sharp as they can get without additional time to migrate to longer timeframes.

So there are still some unanswered questions here as far as short term trade goes, but more and more clues are stacking up.

This is what the rest of the HYG charts look like as the negative relative divergence on the 1`0 min above is about as far as the HYG distribution signals go so far.

 This is the HYG 5 min chart, its divergence is sharper than the 10 min as the 5 min timeframe migrates to the next longest which is the 10 min above this chart so that process is already underway.

The 2 min HYG divergence is sharp both intraday and on a multi-day basis...

And as far as intraday timing divergences, the 1 min is also not looking good, like the market averages.

As we get more data I'll get it out to you so we can make some decisions about short term trade, as far as longer term core short positions, their not an issue, I have no problem continuing to hold them,  this is not the kind of move that is going to change or rescue the market, it's the kind that will eventually lead to a lower low.

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