Since the last intraday update, Quick Market Update, I wrote:
" In any case, I don't think this divegrence alone is enough to do much with so watch for something like an intraday "W", I'll expand on that below."
Ironically that's exactly what the IWM (strongest intrady divegrence) did , the others didn't, but the NYSE TICK did. We haven't seen any serious migration to the 2 min chart, in fact I don't think anything beyond in line intraday, still leading negative other wise.
IWM 1 min went on to make that "W" base intraday, although not much has happened off it yet, I'd say it's still in intraday positive consolidation.
Here's the 3C divergence intraday IWM with the trendline making the "W".
QQQ did not make a "W", but is still leading on the 1 min chart
The 2 min chart is no better than in line right now, so no migration meaning it's not that strong of an intraday divegrence as of right now.
QQQ 2min in context, it certainly isn't showing up here as anything.
SPY 1 min intraday didn't make the "W" either, although I'd say it is possible.
These 1 min charts move fast, since capturing this one and uploading them ll, this is what the SPY 1 min looks like now...
This "could" pullback to make that "W". All we know as of this moment is the initial divegrence ran about as far as it can go intraday before turning negative. "If" we see a decline and no intraday positive in to the decline toward the white trendline, the move is over. "If" there's some accumulation in to the decline toward the white trendline, then we have a larger "W" base, still 1 min, still intraday, but capable of more than just this small run .
This doesn't change anything regarding how I'd use higher prices at this stage of the game considering the Broader market perspective and the amount of damage done.
Intraday the 2 min SPY is no better than in line, but within context it's still massively leading negative, so again this isn't any kind of move setting up that's of any serious interest and may in fact already be over.
The TICK custom indicator doesn't show anything special.
While the IWM did make the "W" and the SPY/QQQ did not, the intraday NYSE TICk did make the "W" in market breadth.
Here's the first and second low putting in the same "W" pattern as the IWM.
Index futures aren't giving us anything solid to stand on above what we have above.
I just want to reiterate, with the shape the charts and leading indicators are in, I can't see any other use for this potential move than using it to short in to price strength, that's it.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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