Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Quick USO Update

In front of tomorrow's OPEC announcement which has been swirling with rumors, stories and everything you can imagine in such a scandalous organization with so many different competing agendas, the initial charts we saw that showed a change in character, certainly never shoed enough base formation and being a wild card event, our only real edge is finding a leak. Beyond the candlestick daily chart which ran stops under local resistance, I can't find anything that looks like a slam dunk leak, it looks a lot more like lagging response to rumors and actual events that have occurred over the last week, in other words trailing, not leading as a leak would be.

Again, the best looking chart arguing for an upside reversal in USO is the candlestick chart ALONE, no 3C charts have shown anything resembling a leak of the decision to cut production or not.

The daily USO candlestick chart shows what is as of now, "close" to a Harami reversal, although not a true inside day, volume did increase as stops under local resistance were taken out.

In my view, if this were candlesticks alone without a wildcard fundamental event, I may be tempted to go long USO, but being it is a wildcard fundamental event with numerous parties all seeking to serve their own agendas, I doubt very much they even know what they'll do so in my view,  at best USO is a coin toss and that's just gambling, not trading on an edge.

I personally would remain neutral oil.

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