Monday, January 12, 2015

Splitting the Difference- SPX vs RUT

Te one thing I do see, which doesn't really help answer the bigger question, is an intraday divergence between the IWM charts and the QQQ/SPY which are down more than double the IWM.

It looks like the SPY/QQQ will try to bounce a bit in to the close while the IWM looks like it will catch down to the SPY/QQQ's relative weakness on the day. Again, this is intraday and again, even this is not that clean and simple...

 IWM 1 min intraday has been in line almost all day, but is turning more and more negative as we move toward the close. This is the essence of Friday's Price/Volume Relationship, "Carry on...Keep doing what you were doing".

 The QQQ 1 min looks pretty positive and you might wonder why I didn't drag this chart out before, but stick it in to context and you get...

QQQ 1 min with the oversold bounce positive divegrence at "A", the trouble in the charts on the 8th and the current 3C and price location at "B", now compare both where price and 3C are at "B" vs "A".

Price is lower at "A" and 3C is higher, a clear positive divergence, but relatively speaking at "B" price is higher than "A" , but 3C is lower than "A", thus is not as exciting as it first appears to be.

 SPY 1 min with a pretty clear looking 1 min intraday positive. SPY does have a similar problem to QQQ, just on the next timeframe.

If you look at the 2 min SPY chart it appears to be in line and is intraday today.

However, put it in context and again, doing an "A"-"B" comparison with the positive at the the 5th, 6th and 7th and comparing where price and 3C where then vs now, SPY 2 min doesn't look so good- Not a smoking gun, but an observation.

The 5 min chart remains the issue, it has gas in the tank from the positive, but it also has damage that is out of place and isn't accumulating a pullback if this indeed was to be a gap fill.

As for the other charts...
 QQQ 5 min, still kind of limbo.

IWM 2 min is leading negative, so that 1 min positive appears to be intraday only at this point.

IWM 5 min

As a potential prize for patience and diligence, there may be something developing in HYG, I watch this close as it is usually a giveaway as to what the market will do.

HYG has been rather supportive since the oversold lows, but this afternoon something may be changing.
 HYG 1 min intraday negative relative

HYG 2 min negative-possible migration

HYG 3 m leading negative.

This may be the first decent start of something.

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