Tuesday, March 31, 2015

A.M. UPDATE

From last night's Daily Wrap...

"Finally Futures...

USD/JPY looks like it's going to see some overnight downside, this should weigh on the averages if it carries through until tomorrow and being the divergences on the single currency futures are pointing that way both on the 1 min, 5 min and 7 min charts, I suspect that's a fair possibility (see the ES correlation with USD/JPY the last several days - above).

Index futures don't look good either. They saw distribution intraday and that has put them in a worse position as the day has gone on as we have seen in the averages as well.


The bottom line is this looks like the kind of bounce I suspected and it sees to be falling apart rather quickly, perhaps because it didn't have that base, but again, this was expected to be more of a counter trend bounce, a normal corrective bounce rather than the other types we have seen earlier in the year which had specific targets and goals like to break the 2015 range and create a bull trap."

Sure enough, the overnight session was ugly starting with USD/JPY....
 USD/JPY overnight also taking Asian markets lower including obviously the Nikkei.

The USD/JPY correlation was weaker earlier in the night, but for most of the night, ES (purple) followed the pair lower or vice versa as we saw weakness in Index futures last night.

Crude slid lower. As a reminder today is the last day of high level talks with Iran over sanctions that could see them lifted and Iranian oil back on the market in supply.

I looked at ES and thought , "It looks like we'll bounce", but not all futures look the same on the intraday 1 min chart.

NQ 1 min is kind of in the middle and weaker looking than ES...

And TF is right in line with price.

All of them are negative at the next highest chart at 5 min and longer as we saw last night.

ES 5 min and this is what the other Index futures look like so this last day of Window Dressing may not go down well and the weakness seen yesterday really was weakness, more than I've seen on the first day of a bounce in a long time, but remember the base never gained solid footing either.

The $USD seems to be a big driver of futures and oil, etc right now. Intraday it looks as if it could come down which should help risk assets move off lows of this morning, but we'll have to see what they move in to, I suspect more distribution.

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