Monday, May 4, 2015

Holding VXX Puts for Now

The VXX puts opened Thursday, Trade Idea: Extremely Speculative (Options/Puts) VXX are regaining some value lost earlier today as they went green (from about +60% to +35%).

I see some intraday signals that suggests to me that holding them for a bit longer makes sense... This does not negative anything said in the last post and may in fact lead to closing the position earlier than would normally be expected based on where the market averages are in their distribution cycle.

 SPY intraday showing the earlier negative signal I showed which was almost a t a leading negative signal and some positive divergences formed up since suggesting higher prices as already expected from last week and Friday's "Week Ahead" post which should send VXX lower, even if not as low as the correlation would suggest, that still should increase the value of the puts near term.

QQQ showing the same recent positive intraday signal in to the afternoon.

And the NYSE intraday TICK chart's improvement as well in an uptrend and approaching the +100 area.

As for VXX itself...
Here's the early positive divergence which confirms the negative divergence in SPY and QQQ at the same time as VXX hit intraday lows and SPY/QQQ hit intraday highs. Like SPY and QQQ, the afternoon signal is the exact opposite as it should be intraday with a negative suggesting lower prices near term.

This is for trade management purposes only, otherwise everything in the previous post stands.

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