Friday, March 4, 2011

SPY is now in a serious position

 I drew these trenlines earlier today, each one is more pressing. I had two scenarios for the bounce that we called on Tuesday based on an oversold condition with 3C readings. Last night I mentioned the Price/volume overbought readings and 3C. So the first target was the intraday wedge which we hit perfectly yesterday, the second possibility was a head fake marginal new high. It's looking increasingly like target 1 is the target and we will not see the marginal new high, at least not on this leg and if not now, it becomes increasingly unlikely.

 SPY 1 min negative divergence in red and confirmation of the downtrend in green

 The 5 min chart also confirming the downtrend today

Finally our 15 min chart where this negative divergence seems to have solidified the reversal as the 15 min chart is where we usually see divergences that turn the market on a swing basis.

Yesterday I also talked about trader's willingness to hold positions into the weekend and that would be a sign of the market sentiment, obviously they (as of now) are not willing to and thus sentiment from the bounce has now soured. If we take out the lower trendline on the close, the implications for the market become very dire indeed. This is why I have been saying to use this strength to get into short positions you like.

The next major downdraft is not likely to become oversold like the last one did, it is more likely to break the back of the uptrend in the market, although we do have a new POMO schedule for next week, I'm just not sure the Fed can fight this market.

The S&P caught between two trendlines of support and resistance, a break here could be devastating.

 A new indicator I shared last week in the top pane negative on the daily S&P, My MACD heat map-Negative, RSI negative.

Volume is ugly, MACD is negative and as I've mentioned before, the common "Kiss the channel goodbye" on a linear regression channel.

Finally, the VXX

MACD trend has gone positive, the trend has gradually sloped to lateral/short term up ad there's a triangle coiling up ready to explode higher (this tracks inversely to the market-so up here is down in the market). While there may have been some consolidations in the past, none have had all of this going for it.

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