Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Possibilities...

Remember last week I mentioned what I said looked like a stealth move into TLT-the 20 year Treasury Bond Fund?

 When I mentioned it, I don't think TLT has quite broken out above the trendline and the breakout was very quiet volume wise. The pullback over the last few days has also been quiet.

 The 10 min chart shows a positive divergence into the pullback

So does the 5 min chart...

I suppose this is another possibility. Obviously we have a debt ceiling breach that is imminent. The Fed also talked last week about a 50 basis point hike, which would require the Fed to sell assets on their balance sheet. Bill Gross also came out yesterday talking about the scenario that would have to occur for him to start buying treasuries again, an odd statement from a Treasury Bear as of late and a very vocal one.

What is the Fed not only took down commodities, but also went for equities? What's left as a safe haven flight? And wouldn't that also benefit the Fed, even more so?

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