Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Some Leveraged ETFs

When something seems like it's moving in a direction and there's enough evidence to consider it to be a valid assumption, I try to look for contradictory evidence, yes contradictory. When you have an assumption, you often look for supporting evidence of that assumption and that's similar to indicator fitting which is another way to squeeze the information out of the market that you want and if you look and try hard enough, you can always find what you want. The key is not, "not having an opinion", it's in being open to information that contradicts your opinion. High probability trades don't come from a few observations, but multiple observations that seem to reinforce the original observation.

This is one reason I use 3 differently coded versions of 3C and why I look at multiple timeframes. I decided to look at not just the regular SPY, IWM, QQQ, etc, but also their leveraged counterparts to see if there was confirmation between those as well.

 QLD-leveraged long ETF for the NASDAQ 100 with a 10 min negative divergence.

 Compared to QID, leveraged short for the NASDAQ 100, the inverse, a positive 10 min divergence.

 TWM  leveraged short on the Russell 2000 with a 10 min positive divergence.

 UWM leveraged long on the Russell 2000 with a 10 min negative divergence

 SSO, leveraged long ETF for the S&P-500 5 min negative divergence

and SDS, leveraged short on the S&P-500 with a 5 min positive divergence.

Not only do these match up with the earlier market update, but each one is the exact inverse of the other. This lends more credibility to the assumption that there's a bearish move underway in the market today. As a reminder, a divergence is not a signal to buy or sell, it's telling you what the underlying action is in an equity. So today as most of the market is up, it's telling us that there's bearish undertones and that the price appreciation is likely being used to exit long positions or enter short positions. When we have multiple timeframes all confirming the same thing up to the 15 minute chart, then we are usually close to a reversal, although price confirmation is the ultimate confirmation.

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