Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Treasuries

Today it was the 5 year's turn. The bid to cover was 2.59, coming in well below the average, the indirect bidders, just like yesterday backed off again, only taking down 37.6% and the yield surged.

A quick look around the Treasury complex shows trouble in just about every part of the curve.

Here are a few examples:
 This is a 2 year bear ETN so the 2 years are looking bad

 Here's the 7-10 year-looking bad

The 1-3 year looking bad
This is TBF, a 20 year bear so the 20 year is looking bad.

This is all pretty recent, but it seems the obvious question of "who will be the buyer?" with QE2 winding down, has moved from a question to action.

Some possible plays include:

Long TBF (20 year short ETF)
Long TBT (20 year Ultra short)
Long PST (7-10 year Ultrashort)
Long DLBS (Long Bond Bear)
and that's about it as far as ETFs with any volume unless you want to short some of the long ETFs if you can.

I'll take a closer look at these tonight, but the last two auctions have certainly seen a change in perception. 

No comments: