Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Market Perspective...

At 1:27 with the SPY trading at $129.27, I showed you the volatility squeeze in the Bollinger Bands that suggested a highly directional move was coming and said, "A move up would be highly suspect at this point."


That's not because I don't think the market has what it takes to break out, in fact I think it has what it takes to break out and bounce-obviously Greek events tomorrow will be influential, but here's the longer term charts of the SPY, which I have shown you (particularly in to the pullback).


 SPY 60 min

 SPY 30 min

SPY 15 min


My comments were more specific about today in which financials are underperforming and volume is exceptionally low for such a move. The market looks as I said, "Stretched". There's nothing wrong with a pullback in an uptrend, it wrings out the excesses, prevents overbought conditions and keeps the trend healthy.


I'd rather see a pullback as long as it holds up technically, maybe holds around the 50-bar m.a. on a 5 min chart or so.


I'd prefer not to see the market try to break through support on an already extended move, there needs to be a local base that it can stage the breakout attempt from.


All in all, the market hasn't added much, currently at $129.36 as  write this, I'd gladly accept a pullback and a base to attempt a breakout, then a $.09 gain.


Current SPY trade...


The TICK Index is starting to move south. 

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