Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Theory on How OP-EX Friday Fits In To The Big Picture

I just looked at the SPY Options chain, between $120-$130 there's heavy open interest in both, but about 60% more in the puts then the calls.

So this is just a theory, but if Wall Street creates a SHARP sell-off between now and Friday, they wipe out most of the call contracts, the holders of Put options may be more likely to exercise their Puts then sell them if they see such a sharp sell-off. The long term 3 has been bullish, so f next week Wall Street runs the market up then the exercised Puts will be in a short squeeze and they effectively knock them out too on a Sharp rally.

Here are some of the charts that have me expecting the pullback/head fake/possible sharp sell-off....

 DIA 15 min neg. divergence

 DIA 10 min neg. divergence

 DIA 30 mn positive-Big picture, near new highs in leading positive divergence

 IWM 15 min negative divergence

 IWM 2 min negative divergence

 IWM 30 min chart-Big picture, leading positive at new highs.

 QQQ 15 min negative divergence

 QQQ 30 mn Big Picture w/ a positive leading divergence at new highs.

 SPY 15 min negative divergence

 SPY 5 min negative divergence

SPY 30 mn Big Picture with a leading positive divergence close to new highs.

This is just a theory, but it makes some sense or some variation of this theory. Either way, the 30 min harts seem to suggest that we have more upside and haven't even seen a short squeeze yet.

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