Monday, December 5, 2011

Credit/Risk Basket Update

 Commodities today vs the S&P (Always Green), no surprise here after the earlier post showing Gold, Silver Copper and Oil all heading lower, risk off in commodities.

 The wider view, is this and this is where we look for dislocations between risk assets like commodities that should be in sync with a risk on equities move, but aren't. In the past, even smaller dislocations have led to some signifiant "getting to know gravity" in equities.

 High Yield Credit "seems" to be in sync with the S&P today... seems


 We just need to step back and see that High Yield credit hasn't moved above the highs of several weeks ago while equities certainly have-dislocation #2.

 Here's the Euro today vs the S&P, you all pretty much know by now that they tend to travel almost in lock step with each other, not today.

 And on a longer term basis, not through this entire bounce, Dislocation #3 -see what the last dislocation brought, a sharp 9% decline.

 High Yield Corporate Credit... Here you can see the history of several dislocations and the S&P's response shortly thereafter...

 And Yields are in line today?

Zoom out a bit and you can see they haven't been able to break above the highs at the first day of the bounce, another dislocation. The idea here is risk assets should rally in a risk on rally in equities, when they don't, that rally becomes questionable.

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