Monday, January 9, 2012

AAPL on thin ice

Lets just get to the charts on this one...

AAPL's move looked pretty good in the green area, it was advancing, pulling back to wring out overbought excesses and moving higher. In the yellow zone, those pullbacks which believe it or not (they aren't always fun to sit through) are actually healthy for the longer term trend, started to fade away and AAPL started to look wedgie. The Red area is where I consider it to be in a real danger zone fueled most probably only by short squeezes.

 Around the white box, I wrote AAPL looked ready for a bounce. AAPL had a breakaway gap, which is the most bearish gap you will see in the market, although the market has been filling these gaps left and right due to extreme volatility among other reasons, it looked a little out of reach, but last week it became apparent it would fill that gap area and it has done so. Today's momentum is very poor creating what is so far an evening star doji, although price looks healthy, price alone doesn't represent the move, this evening star leaves AAPL very exposed and vulnerable here for a reversal.


 Short term charts are offering no support today as you can see above and below.


 The longer 5 min chart is leading negative and hasn't been supportive in the red zone, which leads me to believe this is a short covering move, which may make for some nice price gains, but doesn't do anything to build a strong base under the advance and again leaves it vulnerable here.

 The 15 min chart looks as it should for the Green zone, in the yellow zone the accumulation period is quite narrow. In the red zone, the 15 min chart is leading negative, implying short selling in to the price strength, a short squeeze creates demand for the stock which would enable Wall Street to sell short in to that demand at favorable prices.

 Longer term, the hourly chart hasn't been supportive of this move at all, so from this perspective, it does look like a forced gap fill/short squeeze and not underlying strength. The yellow box is meant to represent the red zone seen on the first chart.

 My Custom DM inspired indicator has only given 3 daly sell signals, we are in the middle of one right now. You can see the last two very right on track.

 Even more surprising because MoneyStream rarely gives strong signals, but when it does, they tend to be strong, MS is more or less confirming what the 60 min 3C chart was showing, no support for this most recent move up as MS is also leading negative on the daily chart above and the 60 min chart below as well as the 30 and 15 min.

I've urged patience with AAPL as many members have been looking for an entry, but now is the time to pay attention,

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