Monday, January 9, 2012

SPY Update

Seems like Mer-Kozy's meetings pre-EU summit are failing to impress the market, even on a short lived sugar rush.

 Here are a series of two price patterns, both suspicious from last week, the ascending wedge that was talked about followed by a ascending triangle which was misplaced to be a true ascending triangle. These are some of the reasons I left my BAC short in the options portfolio open over the weekend, even though I had a 5% 1-day gain. At the white arrow we have another tweezer top which is a candlestick pattern that represents resistance. At the yellow arrow, a slight breakout of the triangle which has thus far failed and certainly didn't get to test resistance, the red arrow is the current move lower which is seeing NYSE TICK readings of -1250 (pretty bearish intraday moves) and the white trendline would be the ascending wedge's base, which would be a first target for the SPY/SPX.

 Niether pop in the SPY this morning was confirmed (both n yellow), in fact they were both at negative divergences / distribution areas.


This 5 min chart is more serious and it's leading negative, this is what ultimately swayed me toward leaving the BAC puts in place, along with numerous other observations.

Let's see if we hit our ascending wedge implied target. If you forgot about the predictions made about the wedge from last week, you should take a look back at that post, all of which have come true. This is not because I'm some guru and it's not a lucky guess, t's based on observation of hundreds of these patterns showing up over the last year and I'd say 80% of the time they play out like this (as was outlined before it even began). Here is the post from last week re: the wedge pattern.

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