Tuesday, June 19, 2012

GDX Charts

 5 day chart and the 4 cycles, accumulation, mark up, distribution/top and decline, GDX is in the middle of a long term start of stage 4, but remember this is a 5 day chart so a lot can happen in the interim.

 Daily chart and break below the support of the 5-day chart top, the yellow box looks to be the bear trap.

 Since then (this is the reason I never take long term short position on the first break of support, I may take them at significantly higher prices, but no long term positions on the first break of support because of the volatility shakeout as we see here and likely will continue to see in the future.)

 60 min chart showing GDX looking very strong, this suggests that there's more upside in GDX and I'd expect it to break back above resistance eventually, however a pullback in the near term looks likely first.

 The 15 min chart in the triangle, this is difficult with a triangle this big, but recent action looks more like it wants to pullback than try to break through major resistance at this point.

 5 min chart, not terribly negative, I don't see this as a large distribution event, but large enough to effect a pullback in GDX/Gold miners. Keep in mind, F_E_D easing could significantly change the outlook for GLD and miners as gold is one of the primary beneficiaries and we have the F_O_M_C policy statement tomorrow, it's a wild card so I'd advise some caution and not go swinging for the fences here.


The 2 min chart also looks like we'll see a pullback in GDX soon.

It's difficult to say how large it will be, it's impossible to say what will come from the F_E_D tomorrow, but based on what we know right now, it looks like a pullback in to positive divergences/accumulation and then a run to make a move higher through major resistance.

Here's NUGT which is the 3x leveraged long for GDX. The 30, 15 and 5 min charts below seem to confirm what we are seeing in GDX.




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