Tuesday, June 19, 2012

The Other Side of the Coin

Clearly as you can see in the 30-60 min charts of the market, it looks like something is going to drive this market higher in to a short squeeze and we could see a significant move higher.

I'm not going to have time to post the Risk Asset layout before the close, but there's improvement there today, specifically in High Yield credit, both HY and Corp. Overall the layout is moving back in to line , suggesting higher prices as well.

Between what we are seeing in 3C and the Risk Asset layout, it seems there's going to be something to drive this market higher, the F_O_M_C policy statement is tomorrow, that would seem like an obvious answer, however GLD looks like it wants to come down first.

That's the basic scenario we are looking at. I was hoping I wouldn't have to have my hedge in place by the time the F_O_M_C meeting came around, but one of the reasons I added the long positions was in case I needed a hedge in place.

There's so many different ways this could go I can't even begin to imagine, but one thing we often see on policy statements is an initial knee jerk reaction, sometimes an hour, sometimes several days and then a reversal of the knee jerk reaction, just something to keep in mind.

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