GLD Full Update

I would think if smart money knew what the F_O_M_C was going to do (and we have seen instances in the past in which it looked very much like they have known in advance-not often, but there have been several very odd instances) it would be reflected in gold. "IF" the F_O_M_C creates some sort of QE3 program, historically gold has been one of the biggest beneficiaries. I'm going to show you the charts as they are because there are two themes here that contradict each other, both have seemingly good signals.

I can't guess what the F_O_M_C might do, I can't guess whether it will be effective as circumstances are vastly different, I can just show you what I see in GLD.

 GLD's daily trend leading to a triangle top-like formation at the yellow arrow. There was the typical first break in the yellow box that was shaken out, at the orange box there was an upside head fake move we made nearly 215% in 3 days or so with Puts and the recent white box that suggested GLD was about to fall, 3C gave a long signal and GLD saw it's biggest 1 day move up since 2009.

 At the red arrow is our head fake 215% put trade, at the Green arrow, our long position, both head fakes that traders would have expected to go the other way.

 Here you can see some trendlines, this is the 60 min chart of the most recent signal. The trendlines formed a bearish triangle that suggested to technical traders that GLD would break to the downside, the 3C positive divergence gave us a long signal and the biggest 1 day move in years, but now this chart looks bad, it is leading negative as you can see the move up was sold in to.

 The 30 min chart shows the breakout to the upside-the exact opposite of what technical analysis teaches and 3C showing distribution in to that big move up and a recent negative divergence as well. To me, it looks like GLD is coming down.

 The 15 min chart, positive at the lows of that bearish price pattern, then the gap up, again we see distribution in to the price strength and another negative divergence now.

 The 5 min chart even shows the trade from positive divergence where GLD was "supposed to break down" according to TA, and a negative divergence in place now.

 3 min chart is negative here, much like the GDX findings


 The 2 min showing detail of the selling in to the gap up and a leading negative now

The 1 min chart doesn't seem very important considering the above, but intraday there's a small positive.

Everything looks like GLD will fall, which would suggest, "If smart money knew what the policy statement would be, it doesn't look good for QE and doesn't look good for gold". There's only 1 problem...

The daily chart...

This shows GLD negative in to the highs that formed the left side of the triangle, there's a positive at support in December, then GLD is run back down and now there's a positive at the support area from May/June.

If I had to guess, I would say there's no QE and GLD comes down, however perhaps there's QE later in the year.

I would think for GLD to come down, the F_E_D would not hint at QE coming. That's just my initial thoughts.