RIMM Chart Request

RIMM, I am proud to say is a chart we have watched transition from a negative price trend, but we expected that because of the underlying 3C signals we were getting. Many members are long RIMM, many more would like the opportunity.

There were several positive divergences that we called correctly, but for the wrong reasons which is fine because we'll never know the real reason until it's too late to make any money. There's a way to be sure, there's just no money in it. At first we saw a positive divergence just before earnings, I thought it was a leak, but RIMM didn't react well to earnings, we stuck with the trade even though it lost 9%, we did that because the 3C signals stayed strong. Eventually there was a huge management shakeup and RIMM went from a losing trade to a winning trade in days, the point is, you never know why- we thought earnings, but someone knew ahead of time there was going to be a management shakeup.

RIMM also benefits from the QE3 effect, I call it that because ever since then (and I believe this is because of the uncertainty the F_E_D is creating with their new policy yardstick rather than timetables) stocks with high P/E multiples or the high flyers have been getting crushed like AAPL, whereas the stocks that were already beaten up pretty good look a lot more reasonable in valuation and that might actually matter if the F_E_D suddenly changes their QE policy because of unforeseen economic developments, funds for once in the last 3-4 years may actually be a little more concerned about value rather than momentum if they have a sudden shift in F_E_D policy that sends the market down lower, at least they are holding stocks that are closer to fair value.

The other thing RIMM may be benefitting from is the notion of AAPL's invincibility was stripped away with the IP-5, as I said at the time, for the first time I can remember, an AAPL product was evolutionary rather than revolutionary. RIMM might just find a bigger share of the market.

Here are the numerous charts because if you look at each, there's something to be seen, something to be learned.

If you are already long, this may be of some help, if you want to get long, be patient, RIMM is worth the wait.

 I always start with a 5 day chart, I want to see what has happened and here I can see a change in character in volume, first it's very heavy on the move down as RIMM longs clear out, then it is very heavy on the upside as a new class of RIMM longs come in. Any way you want to look at it, compared to the market's declining and horribly low volume, something stands out about RIMM, it's worth investigating.

 Then RIMM makes a nearly perfect rounding bottom, it even has higher volume on the right side, it's actually nearly technically perfect for a rounding bottom, but if you think it didn't get head faked and shaken out, think again.

 Here's the clear range/base and you may not think it looks like much, but that's a 1-day -6.6% move with another 2+% for almost a 9% 2 day shakeout below support, you know how hard that would be to sit through?

Right after the head fake move what happens? RIMM's move in to Stage 2 Mark-Up starts, the head fake move is a sign post on the map telling us the move is about to start.

 I'm using my Trend Channel here set to 4 days, you set the TC depending on the trend you are trading, there was one volatile stop in the downtrend before a new downtrend and then a stop out and a long signal that is still long with a longer term trending stop around the $10 area, but never put stops at whole numbers like $10 or even close ($9.87 or $10.31 would be my choice and I wouldn't place it with my broker-just mental and on a closing basis only).

 RIMM tracks the 100-day moving average pretty well, it acts as resistance and a breakout area that is very close to the Trend Channel's signals.

 My X-Over Screen is also set to a longer trend of 2 days, note the first price crossover, this is why I added the middle custom indicator and m.a. as well as RSI, when all 3 give a buy or sell signal, they rarely get whiplashed like most moving average crossover systems.

Typically in a new trend the first pullback is to the yellow price moving average, the second is typically between the yellow and blue and subsequent pullbacks usually hold at the 22 bar blue moving average, so remember these will keep moving up on momentum, but those are the rough areas you might want to set some alert for if you are interested in RIMM.

 Something big happened in 3C too, this is a daily chart, these rarely see leading positive divergences, almost never this big and almost never this fast, this is a HUGE change in character and CHANGES IN CHARACTER PRECEDE CHANGES IN TRENDS.

 The 4 hour 3C chart leading positive

 Look at the 60 min, almost all of the leading is during the base, this should give you the confidence needed to stay in the trade on a bad head fake move like it saw.

 The 30 min trend is in line, the two yellow areas are head fake moves within the base before the breakout, this tells us that the longer term trend is not in any real danger.

 The 15 min chart shows the start of a leading negative divergence so we also know that it's likely RIMM will pullback, but only pullback because the 30 min chart has no problems. This means we may be able to get a great entry on a new position or an add to long position in RIMM.

 The very near term 5 min shows recent damage, but this is nothing compared to the positive longer charts, it may be enough though to get our pullback.

 The 3 min is also negative, but it's still lingering, the exact set up for a sell or short (I prefer not to short RIMM) is not clear yet, I think it will be within the next few days.


The 1 min chart is also negative here so we know that we are close to a pullback and we know probabilities are very high that this is a pullback worth buying. We just need the set up for any who want to take some profit of the table and as it pulls back we'll watch 3C for signs the pullback is being accumulated, maybe a head fake move and we'll be in pretty good position.

I would set alerts along the moving averages described and the Trend Channel.

I suspect that RIMM will see a pullback when the market itself sees the next trend to the downside so it may be a pretty decent pullback.

There's resistance around the $14.80-$15 level, I know that' pretty far from here, but it would make for a great had fake move and we'd know where to take profits and maximum profits so that's one thing I'll be watching for.

If you are interested in RIMM, feel free to keep in touch via email for regular updates.