Long Term Position-URRE long Update

This has turned out to be a much longer term position than thought, but to be honest before the housing boom and during the Tech bubble bust, there was about a year and a half of accumulation in the home builders and many saw 2500% moves so the bigger the base, the greater the potential gins it can support.

URRE is nuclear and Obama's win with their new Power-Plant emissions guidelines leave only nuclear or Natural Gas-clean coal doesn't pass the test. More importantly today, the election of Abe in Japan is seen as pro-nuclear so this is likely what this is all about, but is it sustainable?

The position I opened in the Equities model portfolio for URRE was a partial position of 1/3rd, so the loss there is 22% on the position, but only 1.1% of portfolio value allowing me room to let what I think is a long term, attractive trade, the time it needs to work. Many of those home builders saw drops of 75% or more during their bases, but when you see a 2500% gain on top of that, you don't even notice the 75% decline.

Since it has been a while, here's the URRE Update

 In 2011 we saw a lot of these descending and ascending wedges and we got to now them pretty well, in Technical Analysis they teach this descending wedge is a bullish price pattern and when price reaches the apex of the two trendlines, it should breakout to the upside and retrace the base with a move in this case, to the $3.50+ area (like the yellow lines).

However we saw so many of these both bullish and bearish and what they turned out to be instead was an initial head fake in the direction traders expected and then bullish ones like this went on to build bases and bearish ones built tops, ultimately they should move in the direction T.A. anticipates, just not anywhere near the time T.A. anticipates.

 Here's price coming out of the wedge, you can see the initial breakout to the upside, that sucks in longs and then fails causing them to dump at a loss and sends price down lower where it can be accumulated cheaply.

 Here's the recent action in URRE I think anticipating the Abe win in Japan, notice support is tested and just barely breaks below last Thursday to clear out stops/orders, today it's up over 18%.

 Here's the long term chart- 5 day with the largest leading positive divergence URRE has ever seen over the last year.

 Here's the 60 min chart with what appears to be solid accumulation right below the $.50 mark which is a psychological level and in to the recent decline with a leading positive divergence, it seems the Abe win in Japan has been expected for some time.

The 30 min chart shows a recent positive divergence from mid-November.

Because the chart gets spotty
9low priced stocks do that), it's difficult to make out much below this level, but because of the position size, I intend to leave the position open and remember what it has always been called, a "Long Term Long position".

I'll let you know if anything changes that we can see that effects near term trade.