Kind of Unbelievable

If the market is indeed going for the set up that I think I best outlined in last night's "Daily Wrap" video, (it's not much different than any of the recent analysis on the subject), I'm really shocked at how poorly the majority of the market, even assets that have great head fake price patterns , really look today.

The general feeling I got was the only assets that are really showing any reasonably tradable divergences (for a short term hitch-hiker move) are strictly the assets that would move the market, for instance, the average or Industry groups (as I said yesterday, the direction of the market is responsible for about 2/3rds of the direction of any given stock and that's not from me, although I had heard this before from someone I trust, that's from the SEC's website. The second most influential group are the industry groups themselves, responsible for about 50% and then of course subindustry groups and last is the stock believe it or not). So given what I just said about what moves the market, it's odd that those are about the only assets despite some that have good set ups for a head fake move, that were showing anything near tradable even for a quick trade.

As I said earlier and just confirmed in the Futures, the QQQ and IWM look the best, the SPY isn't even really interesting, by itself, I'd have no interest at all and the DIA looks downright bad, not even in line.

The Financial group looked pretty good, but again this is one of the 3 largest industry groups.

Some individual stocks that I thought might look decent for various reasons, didn't and I mean to the point that I couldn't find any reason to consider them for even the most speculative of trades, these included:


AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, IBM (which I would think would appreciate a bounce after today), XOM (which I thought had more upside in its counter trend bounce), NFLX (which had a bull pennant already in place, traders would already be watching it, why not go for it there?), MCP (which had a bullish ascending triangle in place), HYG (again a bull-flag/bull pennant), PCLN (with a bullish triangle).

The engines needed to push the market, SPY Arbitrage and former Carry Trade currency crosses are in place, the components that create the SPY arbitrage are in place (that means this market has no legs of its own and is depending solely on not 1 manipulation trick, but 3). The Leading Indicators were confirming, although only for the briefest of moves, so it looks like if there were any investment in to this mini-cycle, it was small and only in the assets that could actually perform a helpful function, the high Beta/momentum positions you'd think they'd want to be in, no interest at all.

Technically today functioned as a confirmation candle for the two-day tweezer top, so it's hard to see this lasting more than a day, at least with what we know right now, if that's the case, rest up this weekend because we'll be very busy come Monday