Market Update

Everything in this post is confirming or highly probable to confirm the ideas laid out in the last post which all stem from longer term thoughts about all of this that I tried to explain in last night's video.

There are still some other assets I'd like to look at and then maybe make a decision if I want to close any positions like the IWM Oct. PUT, which I'd take a -4% loss on and perhaps open a short term call (doubtful unless the charts are convincing) or maybe look at positions in precious metals, maybe a NUGT add to again if there's convincing data. This (deciding whether to move positions or open new positions)  isn't about "probabilities", I know what the probabilities are; this is about "HIGH PROBABILITY, LOW RISK, EXCELLENT ENTRIES". 

I can't stress enough for those of you using 3C on your own, probabilities are easy to figure out and find, but it's the high probability, excellent entry that is your edge. If the market has been up a few days and 3C is in line with price, you know the probabilities are for a move higher the next day, but that's far from a low risk, excellent entry, in fact you have more risk than profit potential so that probability isn't a great trade set up.

This is my Custom TICK Indicator, kind of a MACD, but instead of two moving averages, it's comparing the SPY to the TICK data. Right now it is positive because the of slope of the linear regression of each.

My other new indicator, "The Most Shorted R3K vs. the R3K" 

Here' we see my custom, "Most shorted" (of the Russell 3000) in red vs the Russell 3000 in green. You might think stocks would be falling hard today on some of these market moves, but the MST Index shows a CLEAR positive Rate of Change that no one needs any ROC indicator to see, this is a short term positive for the R3K, the fear is not there among retail.

 The SPY 3 min intraday positive

 The SPY 30 min leading negative which is via migration . I estimate the scenario look something like the below which is still in line with last night's video.

 On the left is the 10 min SPY chart  and on the right "A" is the 1 min, I marked "A" on the 10 min so you could see where the 1 min chart fits in to the bigger picture.

The thinner green line is current price and the thinner orange line is current 3C, you'll notice they get wider, that is my estimation of future action in both 3C and price. The red dotted trendline is that breakout area in last night's video, above yesterday's intraday high.

The idea is the longer 3C charts should go deeper negative. The short term intraday should stay positive until we get a move up and then start leading negative and going through the timeframes. We'd be left with a larger negative divergence and we'd have the confirmation needed and suspected for the final head fake move that can act as a confirmation candle to the tweezer top reversal already in place.

 IWM 3 min

IWM 10 min from in line to leading negative, it should get worse in to upside, but we need upside for them to sell in to , they don't sell chasing the market lower unless they are panicked like AAPL last year.

 QQQ 3 min, note a trend in intraday?

QQQ 10 min. Also note a trend in the longer charts?