Volatility Supreme

I suppose it was inevitable, quite a few things actually, but volatility was the obvious one.

As you probably know, the pundits and economists were WRONG ONCE AGAIN (actually twice if we count GDP) and the ECB did cut by 25 basis points, which as you probably figured out, sent the market higher which sent the Euro lower 150 pips almost instantly, however what I'm trrying to put together is the information behind the headlines because THAT IS WHAT THE MARKET LOOKS SET TO REACT TO AS VOLATILITY LOOKS READY TO PICK UP ONCE MORE INTRADAY.

US INITIAL CLAIMS missed, not by a lot, but for the 5th consecutive week, it didn't seem to have much effect, but when I say that I'm talking about the obvious, which is the market, it's the not so obvious I'm trying to put together and whether the headline reaction will hold with the behind the scenes information that headline scanning won't tell you about, but the market looks set to react to.

GDP was another surprise at 2.84 from 2.5 on consensus of 2.0, SO ANOTHER HUGE MISS FOR THE PUNDITS AND ECONOMISTS. While this is definitely headline TAPER ON (bad for QE), the details are what the market seems to be reacting to if you look in the right places.

What's the downside for the GDP blowout? Inventories. Goldman Sachs almost instantly lowered their Q4 GDP guidance from 2 to 1.5% which is QE friendly or "Taper OFF" and the hints of a market reaction are there.

While I don't care too much about TWTR, it's not something I want to trade on the first day, it has moved from lows of $44.99 to highs of $50.09 to a current $45.11

HERE'S A REACTION RIGHT NOW AS I TYPE, I THOUGHT THE EUR WOULD HEAD HIGHER AFTER BREAKING DOWN BECAUSE OF A POSITIVE DIVEGRENCE, IT IS RIGHT NOW.

Euro single currency futures, this is the stuff I'm looking at that isn't obvious in the market's price.

It looks like the ECB cut may have been leaked...

This positive in ES before the ECB at 7:45 was not that out of place, it looked like someone was getting ready to make an opinion based bet, but just before, the leading positive looks like a leak.


There are positives in ES, small, but there as well as some averages like SPY and a few other averages.

SPY positive.

I thought the 30 year was going to head higher and before I could even get this out it did, but I was going to also say 10 year Treasury futures DID NOT look good and they DID not move higher with the 30 year.

T's are QE sensitive and trying to figure which one is reacting and why is what I'm trying to figure out.

The $USD that popped has a negative divegrence and is now dropping as I had expected overall for near term trade (days)

I'm going to put together more specific charts because they are starting to move before I can get the posts out, but the point is, the initial reaction to the headlines seems to be giving way to the details which in some cases are VASTLY different.

I DON'T WANT TO MAKE TRADES OR TRADE MANAGEMENT ON KNEE JERK REACTIONS, EVEN IF THIS NEXT ONE (IT LOOKS LIKE UP) IS A KNEE JERK AS WELL.