Looking at leading indicators and others, I'd say they are consistent with what I said before, "If the market can put together a retracement/bounce from oversold (which is relative or subjective), the indicators don't hint at anything more than that possibility, thus the reason I won't go long any market correlated assets for a bounce, I'm saying there would need to be more of a basing process, an unwind of the very bearish action, which is ironic, because Investor .com had the highest bullish sentiment seen by our resident sentiment follower as today began!!!
TF futures are still building in to the close, not ES or NQ though. The 5 min divergences in the averages are the same.
VIX futures have a slight negative to them.
All carry trades have been lateral all day which is a big difference from the new lows of 2014 put in overnight, that is a somewhat bullish development so it seems there's a lot of panic selling and TICK verifies this.
Yen and USDX are flat as well. Sentiment indicators are either in line or slightly positive and Yields are slightly positive for the market in to the close.
That's the gist of it, unless there's a fundamental surprise, I don't see any "V" shaped bounce, the most likely thing would be lateral trade early next week that may give us a bounce, but I think it needs to end before the end of the month or just after as China faces some defaults that will spread contagion.
All of the negative signals we have been seeing, this is just the start of the result of those, no support, distribution everywhere. This is ugly, but in the big picture, it's nothing.
No comments:
Post a Comment