Market Update

Friday Afternoons I like to try to get the 3C direction after 2 p.m. as weekly option expiration pins are removed, more often than not, the divergences in place Friday afternoon will pick up where they left off the next trading day, even over a weekend.

I have a selection, mostly intraday timeframes so you can see migration, but also some of the real trouble, the reason I believed they'd run such a strong price move long before it happened and what would come next as it was to set up the next move just as the head fake move was to set up this move or yesterday's XCrazy Ivan was to set up yesterday's closing move.

DIA

 1 min intraday turning negative and leading at that.

2 min leading negative

3 min leading negative

5 min leading negative, which sets up an interesting chart, it makes yesterday and today's move look very much like a confirmed head fake, the same as the head fake that gave this rally it's initial momentum to force a short squeeze, just in reverse.

 15 min chart, this is actually much worse, but there wasn't any need to scale it out further.

This 60 min is where the next trend that we had predicted BEFORE the Feb 6th/7th move even started has its roots, this rally actually in my view has a purpose and that is to set up the next trend, there are other benefits, some of which we take advantage of, but that was the reasoning and explanation behind our trend expectations. From the looks of the chart, I don't see that they've changed much.

IWM

 3 min which is one I saw starting to fall apart more along the lines of the 5 min yesterday, today it never confirmed despite only being a 3 min chart and remains in leading negative position.

This is the 5 min chart I mentioned, the 3 min joining it is more of a timing issue than a divergence or trend issue.

The 15 min chart making a fairly substantial move on an intraday basis, as I said earlier, some of the leveraged market ETFs were giving signals earlier and we see they appear to have been right, SRTY, 3x short IWM was one of the stronger.

 Again as far as the next trend, this is where the real trouble is for the market on this 60 min chart, it's not only that it didn't move up with the rally, consider the relative divergence between the 3C level and price level at point "A" and "B", it's a quite significant difference.

QQQ

 Intraday 1 min

Intraday 2 min

Intraday 3 min

Intraday 5 min leading negative and adding quite a bit to the leading component.

SPY which has been one of the better looking as far as relative strength goes, but it had more to gain.

 Intraday 1 min as we saw with futures earlier and other ETFs.

 3 min intraday

5 min intraday has lost quite a bit

And 10 min intraday.

Considering the way these trends are positioned now in the 1-5 min range, if they are to pick up where they left off on Monday, I wouldn't expect a very pretty day.