Friday, February 28, 2014

Quick Look At Futures

This is what I was talking about in the last post on a visual basis. It's important to remember that there have been NO significant positive market divergences since the head fake move and the small "W" bottom around Feb 4th, everything else has been powered on BTC, Short Squeeze, some correlations here and there, a Crazy Ivan break with some momentum on a bullish price pattern, and today a ramp in USD/JPY that couldn't hold out for long followed by a ramp from HYG (1 of the 3 components of the SPY Arbitrage market lever) which is failing now too.

However, as was clearly spelled out late January / early February in trying to anchor expectations, "Expect a very strong move" in fact as you have seen several times I had said before it even put in the first point of upside that my inbox would be full of emails asking "Whether you are sure?", BUT DON'T FORGET THE TREND THAT COMES AFTER THIS ONE, THE REASON THIS ONE WAS RAN IN THE FIRST PLACE, IT'S JUST A PART IN THE LARGER PICTURE.

 USD/JPY'S PARABOLIC MOVE JUST BEFORE THE OPEN ...

Note around 11 a.m. the pair was done, it wasn't up for a second leg.

ES at 11 a.m. was up for a second leg, but needed some help, HYG had been pretty flat until about 11 a.m.

And then HYG was the lever taking up the slack, but as you can see HYG's intraday 3C chart and price action is fading .

This is NQ, it looks a bit worse now than the capture, in all cases note the extreme drop off in volume.

And Russell 2000 / TF with a leading negative intraday divergence, remember I had said SRTY (3x short R2K ETF) was one of the better looking long positions building today.

Levers, levers, levers... that's not organic and there's always a reason for moves Wall Street runs.

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