I like MCP as both a long term trend long as well as a trading position, there's a very strong base that has a large footprint and can or will be able to support a very nice move to the upside, however I'm not sure yet if today's move is the start of mark-up or a transition form the stage 1 base to stage 2 mark up, I'd like it to be, but so far we have a parabolic move (granted there's nice volume) and very little in the way of intraday confirmation so far, that can change in a hurry.
For now I am keeping the MCP long open, but if I don't see some improvement or I see deterioration, I may close out the trading position on today's move of +5.68% thus far.
Large triangles like this are rarely a consolidation pattern although many technical traders will view them as such, more often than not they are bases or tops depending on the preceding trend, MCP's base area is actually quite a bit larger than this, but this is about the size of the base in which I think Goldman Sachs is involved as buyers if you remember their little stunt to knock prices lower followed by strong accumulation which you'll see below.
A breakout of a triangle like this at its apex is a clear technical trading buy signal, what bothers me is there was no head fake/ stop run on a very obvious support level, first. Thus, if I feel this is going to end up being a false start, I'd likely try to book the gains, get out and wait for what would more likely than not, be a head fake move below support, that's where I'd want to re-enter, but lets give this a little time and see how things pan out.
As you can see this isn't the first parabolic move which I rarely trust, they tend to have a high rate of failure, but at least this one has some volume behind it.
We are approaching a resistance level and the tall candle wicks today look a little shaky.
This is the 60 min chart's accumulation/leading positive divegrence which started right after Goldman's downgrade or sell (I can't remember what exactly they did, but it seemed obvious from events just after that Goldman is a likely buyer here).
The 5 min chart does show some accumulation getting ready for a breakout move, but there's no real strong 3C confirmation today. My other issue however is that we don't see more of this accumulation/preparation for a breakout in other timeframes, for example...
The very next timeframe at 10 mins shows nothing, you can however, see where the last breakout or false breakout was showing clear distribution in to the move, we haven't had quite enough time for this chart to catch up, but where it sits now, it looks like a false move.
The intraday charts aren't that impressive either, the 3 min is probably the best looking of the intraday (1-3 min) , but it isn't leading or confirming as it should so I'll be watching this one closely as well.
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