A.m. Market Update

Good morning,

Last night's Index Futures update wasn't a fluke. This morning most of you awoke to a USD/JPY trading under $102, at $101.91 presently and lower futures (a gap down) pretty much all around.

Of course the pundits will say it is because the ECB came out and told Europe, "NO QE" which is something most people should have really known, it's very unlikely Draghi ever unleashes QE if he hasn't by now, but if you look at the charts, things were going south for the market well before the head of the ECB broke the dreams of millions of traders and Europeans.

 USD/JPY did break below $102 around the time of the European open so it's not to say that Draghi didn't contribute, but the signs were there last night, well before Draghi spoke.

As far as the $102 level, I'd expect price to either drop like a rock or linger and then drop like a rock, taking a couple of stabs at $102 again, I don't think much will hold, but I do think they'll try.

 The 5 min $USD doesn't look very positive, but there's a slight improvement, it's the Yen immediately...

The 5 min Yen looks as if it will pull back allowing USD/JPY to make a run at $102, I'd expect that early today.

As far as Index Futures go, last night I said they were bad at 5 mins, but beyond as well, take a look.

This is ES 1 min, a bounce with the USD/JPY on a weak Yen would make sense early today, you might think about how you want to use that gap down.

 ES 5 min leading negative even worse than last night.


 TF 15 min leading negative and here's the signals that went from positive until we were above $102 right to negative and leading at that, one of the fastest turn-arounds I've seen leading me to believe $102 was a stop/order run.

The NASDAQ 100  futures on a 30 min chart leading negative and...

Leading negative all the way out to 60 min....

We'll see what early currency futures look like on the first attempt, I really don't expect anything to hold and then I suspect they'll give up pretty quickly.