IWM / SRTY / URTY Follow Up

In case you aren't familiar with the Russell 2000's ETFs and leveraged ETFs, IWM is the ETF for the R2K, URTY is the 3x leveraged long ETF of IWM so it's the same with 3x leverage, SRTY is the inverse , bear or short ETF with 3X leverage (3x short IWM), which is what I've been holding as a core short position, I closed that and opened URTY for a trade and not one I'm very comfortable with at the moment.

Here are the charts that show both sides of the story, just remember the more volatile a top and the further we are toward the right side, the more unpredictable it gets like the -1% and +1% move in the SPX we finally saw 2 consecutive days last week after a 67 day record that hasn't been seen in at least 16 years.

I'll compare SRTY to URTY and IWM at certain timeframe intervals, the longest timeframe is the highest probability, but that doesn't mean we won't have counter trend moves against the highest probability, that's just normal market behavior, that's how lower highs and lower lows are formed, the market has to bounce even in a full-fledged bear market to create that downtrend.

This is the SRTY Trading Portfolio long just closed, I WILL be back in this asset very soon.

 SRTY 60 min which is the long term probabilities or highest probabilities with a large leading positive divegrence.

 The 3x long URTY 60 min chart should have nearly the opposite 3C signal for confirmation which it does with a leading negative  and we have stronger signals than this in the 2/4 hour timeframes as well as the daily charts.

 The IWM should look like URTY above on this 2 hour chart which shows the top pattern, which it does. IWM is at a new leading negative low as would be expected from a mature top that has already broken from the top of the right shoulder.

SRTY in an intermediate timeframe like 15 min is still leading positive showing even intermediate probabilities for a near term move down in the IWM are very strong. This positive divegrence correlates with the top of the IWM's right shoulder.

And the 15 min IWM right shoulder has the confirming negative divegrence which sent prices lower since around July 1st without a single decent bounce.

 SRTY 10 min is where I was wavering until recently as the 10 min started leading negative today suggesting it pulls back and IWM bounces which is in line with expectations for the IWM over the last week and a half or so.

 URTY is negative on a 15 min chart, but at 10 mins. it has a confirming positive divegrence.

As far as making the decision, the 1 min intraday is more of a timing chart and it started leading negative today, thus I made the decision to switch positions for a bounce, but as I said earlier, I wouldn't fault anyone if they just rode out the bounce long STRY as the probabilities are skewed highly in favor of SRTY making large upside gains with some patience, I'm trying to capture some extra gains, I just hope I don't regret trading against the highest probabilities.

As for the SQQQ and FAZ longs, you'd think I would change those around as well to TQQQ and FAS being an IWM bounce should lift the broad market as a whole, I may but I don't even have halfway decent signals which is what I would consider the IWM, SRTY, URTY charts above, "half way decent signals", not strong.