UNG/UGAZ Follow Up / Trade Management

As several of you have noted in emails today, I'm uncharacteristically quiet today, this is because I'm watching every signal and sign in the market, I suspect the turn around on this one is meant to catch traders off guard and therefore could come very quickly, at the same time I don't want to enter if we have more work to do so it's a fine balance that is shifting every hour, that's why I'm quiet, watching every tick of the market.

As for UNG/UGAZ, I have room to add about 50% more to the long position and I probably will, but I don't think just yet, in addition this could be a decent call position if there's enough liquidity for you, but on a sharper move to the downside first.


When I said I was looking for a head fake move/ stop run in UNG or UGAZ (3x long natural gas), this isn't exactly what I had in mind...

 This isn't the head fake below support I was looking for, a technical breach. The point of a head fake move is to swing traders' emotions, to move to extremes that shift emotions to extremes so while everything looks good, I don't think this is the move yet, at least not the one I'll take, I'd rather be patient and maybe even miss filling out the position than enter at a sub-opar area.

 The charts look great, especially visible (as usual) in the leveraged ETFs, UGAZ 1 min

UGAZ 2 min at the head fake area, but you'll notice the volume on the break below wasn't the kind that creates the kind of supply smart money needs to fill their large positions at a decent price without the bid /ask peeling away from their position.

The 3 min chart so we have migration of the divergence showing it is gaining in strength.

5 min positive showing the same as above.

And the 15 min, you probably recall what the 60 min leading positive looks like. I just think we need a sharper downside move, especially for a call position, otherwise as a longer term position, I would say this is an excellent entry if I'm not being totally myopic about it, otherwise, I think we can get better, but you need to set those price alerts for a move below the last 2 days' intraday lows.