Tuesday, December 23, 2014

I like QQQ Short Here

I have a lot of charts to gather, but you've seen a lot in the last day. I knowingly chose to hold my SQQQ position despite the fact I had forecast a move higher for last week, I've explained why, but it comes down to high probabilities, big opportunities and not making a short term mistake and missing out on the larger picture, my AAPL curse  in which we had been calling for a deep reversal in AAPL as it made a series of new highs while it was one of the most popular stocks out there. I was set up short and decided to try to trade around what looked to be a bounce and let go of the short position for a speculative long, fully intending to re-enter the short at better prices when the common event in such a volatile market happened, AAPL just broke and all hedgies ran for the door at the same time sending AAPL down by nearly half (-45%) in 8 months. You are most successful with your trades when you align your trading style with your personality, your risk tolerance, the time you have to spend watching the market and making trades and align that with the same timeframe or scale in the market. In other words a longer term position trader will fare better stickig to longer term positions (which means different risk management, different risk tolerances, etc) and not jump back and forth between a position trader and a day trader. Although I support taking any promising high probability/low risk opportunity, I think there's a time and a place for that and with this market in the shape it is, I don't think this is the time for that which is why I decided to just stick out my positions rather than try to trade around them. 

In any case, "if" I had room to add or was looking to add a short position, I think I would be considering QQQ short here. While I think options can be very useful on the initial momentum ignition of a reversal (in which I still like to have a far out expiration date), I prefer using the 2-3x leveraged ETFs and not worry about the volatility of options and the time decay, but a position I can just sit in and let work.

Examples of some of these positions that you don't hear a lot about because they are core shorts and I'm just letting them work include: HLF +41.23%; NFLX +29.13% & +19.02% (two entries); SCTY +22.24%; TBT +9.24% (this is actually a 2c long TLT, although officially it's short TBT and it's a newer position); FSLR +35.25%; FB +17.50%

I'll update these from time to time, but their larger purpose is to trend. For that reason, I prefer something that can withstand some drawdown on counter trend moves, so I prefer the 2x short QQQ ETF QID or the 3x short QQQ ETF (my personal position) SQQQ (long).

I'll try to get some additional charts out, but I'm also looking at other opportunities so I'll be as efficient as I can with my time, but if I wasn't already fully vested, I'd be adding SQQQ right now.




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