Tuesday, December 23, 2014

"Within the Hour" was the correct answer

I guess we now know about how long it takes Citadel to shut down their USD/JPY correlation chasing algos in the face of fundamental data that has a much different outcome than the USD/JPY pair (ramping) suggests, or perhaps we are all naive to just how deep the corruption and advanced notice of leaked data really is.

I said in the last post, I Wonder How Long? ...

"So I wonder how long it will take the market to stop chasing the USD/JPY as the $USD strengthened on the stronger print pulling the pair up and realize, "Oops, this is not good"?

I say within the hour, but that's just a guess and we've seen the market act stupidly for a longer period of time."

Whether from the time of the post or from the time of the GDP print, within the hour was right on the nose.

The USD/JPY still elevated...

But the Index futures correlation has broke with it, some, like the NASDAQ 100 futures (which looked weaker yesterday if you recall) faster than others.
 ES turned before an hour...

NQ which was looking worse in both Index Futures and QQQ 3C charts yesterday, thus the posts yesterday, QQQ/Tech Looks To be The Worst  and TECH / QQQ

The IWM has now moved to an area I'd have expected on the initial breakout, it's a bit too choppy of action , not exactly what I envisioned, but it does the job and with a gap up, I'll be looking for signs of something like a Dark Cloud Cover candle stick today which would look something like this...
A close at least 1/3rd in to yesterday's real body, a bearish reversal candle.

Or even better and more appropriate for the rest of the forecast envisioned, a Key 1-Day Reversal, we already have the first component of it, the gap above yesterday's range...
While some people consider a close below yesterday's open a Key Reversal Day, the higher standard is a close below yesterday's intraday lows as depicted above.

I have some quick poking around to do, after that it's assets/possible trades and a few updates I need to get to like UNG.





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