Friday, December 12, 2014

USO Charts

First let me be clear that I DO NOT see this as a trend change, USO/Oil would need a much larger base to accommodate such a thing and there's effectively no base. This would most likely be an exhaustion/oversold move that triggers a short squeeze, thus the potential for gains using options is enormous, even with a small, speculative position.

First let me show you some of the longer term charts, the heaviest underlying flow and the most likely probabilities for future trends,  thus another trade you might consider is on any potential bounce, selling it short and let the downtrend continue, this is a safer, less speculative approach, but you can also do both as I would intend.

 The daily Brent Crude Futures chart with 3C confirming the downside.

The long term 4 hour Brent Crude futures chart, again very negative with strong 3C confirmation of the trend.

I checked June/July and we had dozens upon dozens of USO posts, several short/Put positions as well.

This 2 hour USO chart is a thing of beauty. The divergences in the past at the green arrow are normal size divergences, but next to the divegrence at the red arrow, they look like simple "in line" readings. This is the kind of 3C divergence that I'd call "Screaming" or "Jumping off the chart"

Note however the recent change in trend after what looks like an exhaustion gap at the yellow arrow.

Here it is on a 2 min chart's trend.

The Crude Futures are also showing something similar...
 This is a positive divegrence on a 15 min chart and...

Another gaining strength on a 7 min chart.

This is well worth the speculative risk to me, although I would not go against this trend with a normal full size position.

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