VIX Futures and VIX Short Term Futures (VXX /UVXY) Being Accumulated

I'm presenting quite a few charts below for confirmation purposes between VXX (Short term VIX Futures), UVXY (2x leveraged Short Term VIX Futures), XIV (Daily Inverse Short Term VIX Futures) and /VX - actual VIX Futures. If you want to see the specific accumulation of VIX futures today, skip to the bottom of the post. If you want to see the long term probabilities, the intermediate charts, multiple timeframe confirmation, multiple asset confirmation and where the divegrence needs to move to in order to be VERY high probability and very strong timing, check out all of the charts below.

First VIX (CBOE-Spot) has been giving us strong indications of a highly directional move to the upside which started this week. Remember that VIX, the "Fear Index", moves opposite the market as do its signals.

 Our Custom Buy/Sell Indicator which is loosely based on DeMArk principles doesn't give that many signals, but they tend to be very accurate. The last two and only signals for VIX through 2014 were a sell at the October highs (the market's October lows) which was part of our analysis in timing of the October rally as we had long position recommendations on the 13th and 15th.

The last signal was a buy signal that remains in effect from November 10th, for nearly 2 trading weeks VIX trended higher from that signal before pulling back inside its Bollinger Band which has been pinching which indicates a Highly Directional move coming, it's obvious the move is to the upside for VIX (down for the market). Over the last several days, this highly directional move has started. If you look at the last one from late September to mid-October, you'll see not every single day is up, there are pullbacks within the move, but on balance the trend is clearly up so today's pullback shouldn't cause any concern, I believe the directional move indicated by Bollinger bands squeezing and the custom indicator buy signal have likely started this directional move up (down for the market).

These are the signals for VIX since 2013.

The longer term VXX Short term VIX futures has a long term positive divegrence, this is the direction of highest probabilities-to the upside. The VIX buy signal was on the 10th.

Using the long term XIV, inverse of VXX for multiple asset confirmation, it's long term chart and more specifically the are since the October lows (you'll notice that since VIX trades opposite the market, XIV which is it's inverse ETF, trades with the market), has not only a trend of negative divergences at a new leading negative low for this entire trend , but specifically at the area since the October lows rally.

This is confirmation of VXX above.

VXX intermediate 15 min chart has been showing an increased level of underlying activity, positive divergences/accumulation , especially recently. The same in XIV, the inverse of VXX above...

Shows an increased pace of negative divergences/distribution, again more multiple asset and multiple timeframe confirmation of the signals.

The 5 min chart is essentially the Maginot line in which VXX or UVXY 92x long VXX)  have put in the most recent negative divegrence reflecting recent activity in line with the bounce we expected starting yesterday and working in to today. It is this 5 min chart, much like the rest of the market that needs to turn positive in order for us to have negated the recent negative divegrence and move toward the next leg up in VXX/UVXY and the broader market in general.


XIV, the inverse of VXX confirms with a positive divegrence at the same area, again, this chart will have to go negative before we are ready for the next move ending this short term volatility shakeout.

THIS IS WHERE THE CONCEPT OF 3C MIGRATION COMES IN. 

All new divergences will start on the fastest chart, like yesterday's positive divegrences in the markets that failed, it started on the 1 min chart and in most cases didn't move any further except in the IWM which saw a 2 min positive before they were run over and failed with the market moving lower.

As these 1 min divergences gain strength they migrate to longer timeframes like the 2 min and then the 3 min and with enough strength, to the 5 min, negating the recent divergences above on the 5 min charts and telling us that the short term move is over and we are ready for the next VXX move up and market move down.

So we start looking at the fastest charts and migration through the next longest timeframe 2 min, then 3 min, then 5 min to gauge the strength , the timing and probabilities.

Here VXX is putting in a very clear 1 min positive, the start of the cycle.

XIV, it's inverse is confirming the VXX accumulation with its own distribution on the 1 min chart.

VXX 2 min has also gone positive as strength in accumulation of VIX futures builds.

Likewise, in multiple timeframe and multiple asset analysis which gives us the highest probabilities, XIV again shows a confirming  (opposite) 2 min leading negative divegrence/distribution.

As of the last capture, the VXX 3 min chart is in line which is an improvement from the former negative divegrence. If theaccumulation continues to build, since this is already in line or neutral where it was negative just before, it would be the next area of positive migration.

In fact, since this capture for this post, XIV is already showing migration to the 3 min chart (negative).

XIV showing migration with a negative 3 min starting and VXX/UVXY are not far behind, very close to a positive on the 3 min.

These charts can move to the 5 min in less than a half an hour of the accumulation increases strongly.

As for the real VIX Futures, where I first saw the divegrence negative last night which is why I said I expected the market to gain overnight and through today's cash session, it has turned positive.

Last night's leading negative in VIX futures which is part of the analysis that led to last night's futures post and forecast for what to expect overnight and today. Note the stronger leading positive divegrence developing.

And the 5 min VIX futures is in line with the uptrend, even the pullback today is not negative, but in line so it won't take much for this to give a strong long signal.