MCP Update

MCP is getting a bit harder to update because of the lack of price movement in many bars and the low volume of many of those bars, at least in very short term timeframes.

I'm looking at other ways to look at MCP through the Sub-Industry group as well.

In any case, here's what I have thus far as the $.50 level (psychological) level was broken (and normally we would not be looking at a $.50 stocks, but this is a follow.

 Normally about 65% of a stock's directional influence is directly correlated to the broad overall market, however with commodity oriented stocks, that hasn't been true for a while, really ever since the F_E_D noticed QE was driving input costs through the roof for manufacturers several years ago.

The second most influential / directional influence is from the Industry group and then the Su-Industry group, however since the Industry group is Metals/Mining, it's not really a very good proxy for a more specific stock like MCP, so the Sub-Industry group is likely the best proxy as mining has major components like iron ore, copper producers,m etc. all of which have been hit hard due to lack of demand which is a reflection of a global slowdown.

The Sub-Industry group above that MCP belongs to is Industrial metals and minerals, a more specific type of commodities with more specific applications than say iron ore or copper.

It looks like the Sub-Ind. group has a "W" bottom in place with the second bottom having a bullish hammer/reversal candle and on large volume which tends to make these reversal candles several times more effective.

 Compared to MCP's daily chart, it's not the same, however MCP's 2015 trade looks a lot more like a rounding bottom, which is the same effect.

The 3 white hash marks over the 3 previous days' close are candles depicting a loss of momentum which is the same thing a rounding bottom is telegraphing; a Star, a Doji Star, another star and today, although it's not the same candle as the others, volume is higher and if it closes off the lows and forms a hammer as I've drawn right above today's candle in green, it will have a strong reversal candle set up.

 This is an example of a 1 min chart, they aren't very specific signals because many bars as you can see have no price change, many others have no price change or no trades or very few. To get more reliable signals in a circumstance like this you have to aggregate as much as you can in to a trend, meaning using longer timeframes.

 The red trendline is a psychological area, $.50 a whole number. Since that area was hit, we have a 2 min positive right at that level. I can't make a strong case for a stop run as volume on the first move below 4.50 isn't indicative of any such stop move.

 The 3 min chart has the same signal as the 2 min and has a former negative that was correct, although these do have confirmation and the former signal (red) was correct, this isn't the aggregation of a trend that I meant with "longer timeframes".

This 30 min chart would be what I mean, there are no bars without trade data and there's much more movement, right now there are several signals that have been on track above.

The daily Sub-Industry Group's chart also has an interesting and recent daily divergence which is no small thing, especially where it falls within a "W" bottom.

We'll see where MCP closes, a hammer on higher volume would be a good sign for it, especially with the previous several days' candles and the rounding bottom in price. The Industry group looks supportive as well. Hopefully it will get a move that increases volume and makes it a bit easier to see in intraday timeframes.