Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Quick Market Update

It looks like the early NQ (NASDAQ 100) pre-market negative divegrence that has seen the open look pretty ugly, which was in all of the Index futures, but most visible in NQ, is trying to gain a toehold and stem the bleeding.

 NQ 1 min premarket and right now (negative, trying to go positive).

ES is a bit more developed on the current attempt to find an intraday low.

This doesn't look like it was just a normal pullback, although the price percentage moves do look like a fairly normal pullback considering recent volatility rising. When looking at the intraday breadth data via the NYSE TICK, there was some damage done this morning.
 Those are not "Off the chart" extremes, but some solid hits below -1250 and...

deterioration like this on SPY 2 min chart. This isn't enough to really change anything as far as the bounce divergence in place shown earlier this morning in the A.M. Update, but the market seems to be not so happy about something, whether that be the apparent coup in Yemen this morning (which will be interesting to see if that makes it in to the State of the Union- although I highly doubt it), or perhaps Hilsenrath's article about the F_E_D no being deterred from moving forward with interest rate hikes which despite all of the F_E_D speakers coming out with contradictory statements and Bullard (who I use to like) contradicting himself almost on a weekly basis now. 

Of course oil is getting the blame and I can't say it's not without merit, with Baker Hughes laying off 7,000 (apparently each Baker Hughes job is about the equivalent of 10 waitress/bartender jobs) and this after Schlumberger saying last week it would fire 9,000 this week (today I believe).

In any case, whatever it is, it seems to be causing some genuine concern, I don't think enough at this point to alter any near term expectations.

As I also mentioned, it looks like a toehold is being established for early intraday lows in any case. 
IWM intraday 1m in line on the early decline and putting in a positive on something looking like a small inverse H&S intraday base.

Really, unless downside moves like this threaten the base divergence, the real information is on an upside move so this is pretty much a waste of time (data-wise) or a delay.

I'm going to look around a bit more and see if there's anything I missed, but from what I see now this is just a delay and hasn't changed anything.

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