Market Update

This morning's rumors of Greece being extended a 6 month extension, although unofficially and with some Finance Ministers denying the rumors is what gave rise to this morning's risk on pop early on, the one the Russell 200 promptly retraced and then some.

It may or may not be news by now depending on how much of this junk you follow, but it is official, Germany's Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schauble has shot down the "trial Ballon" ahead of tomorrow's emergency meeting of EU Finance Ministers, back to the Russian / Chinese narrative which may not be so far fetched, although it may not agree with Greek voters who want a resolution, but also want to remain in the EU. Apparently testing the political and market reaction before any meeting with trial balloons like this is now standard operating procedure for the EU, good to know they make their decisions based on the finicky market's opinion (at least in part), which means the ramp in pre-market on the initial rumor "should" be discounted and retraced, but it's not quite, although there are clear signs that it's no longer supported either as it was which brings us right back to yesterday's expectations of a market move higher to move VXX/TLT lower to allow them to be accumulated and HYG to be distributed.

So far here's how the Greek drama has played out in Futures...

ES with a suspicious looking dip and accumulation BEFORE the rumor was floated, the ramp in futures is obviously when the Greek extension rumor was floated, then the German Fin-Min clearly and unambiguously shot it down, however it seems the market used this head start to continue what we were expecting yesterday, VXX and TLT have to be lower to be accumulated which means the market needs to move higher as they move inversely to one and another (except on some occasions, bonds will do their own thing).

However, note the lack of 3C support since the retracement on the German Fin-Min clarity and bounce again.

As I have posted several times in the last several trading days, ES still has the best looking chart relative to the other Index futures.

 NQ also has no support on this move and has generally been the second best looking of the Index futures while the R2K futures...

clearly look the worst and have no support on the afternoon bounce after the German Fin-Min shot down the trial balloon.

Yesterday there were some positive divergences in the market averages, the weakest was a late day IWM position a 1 min chart, that's about as strong as it was and if you saw the Russell 2000 update earlier today, you can see that one has already been shot down.

Unfortunately, as has been the case recently, I can't get a complete market update (short term) in to one post because things change so quickly, part of the volatility associated with transitions between stages even though a choppy zone through 2015 may not look like volatility, the size of the swings in that range are actually quite volatile.

As for the averages, they look like what they were setting up for yesterday, again as I said yesterday, although most people have a hard time viewing the market in this manner, I believe as I did yesterday before any upside move, that the upside move is the means to an end and that is accumulation of the Flight to protection and the flight to safety as both were too high for Wall St. to chase them and they come at just about the right time considering the Russell 200 charts posted earlier today.

 SPY 1 min which did put in some intraday positives yesterday shown in the Daily Wrap and market updates is losing the intraday support of 3C now like Index futures.

QQQ also put in a weak intraday positive yesterday, it too is losing 3C intraday support -1m.

As you can see, it never had more meaningful 2 min intraday support today, this shows the fragility of this move, which has largely been carry sponsored (USD/JPY).

 This is a longer view of the QQQ 2 min with additional leading negative lows being added today at a similar relative price level (highs), not good news for the average.

 The IWM shows the small late positive of yesterday has already been run over and is in line on the downside with the slight bounce having no intraday support as well.

 IWM 2 min is confirming the same confirmation on the downside and lack of support today.

And I probably already included this yesterday, but the rapid downturn in the 15 min chart is a serious move.

The only average holding some intraday support is the Dow...

DIA 1 min in line or a little better, but...

There's nothing different on the 5 min chart vs any of the other charts in the same timeframe.

As for the leading indicators, I'll get to those next. TLT is moving in the right direction, although the move lower sends yields higher which usually supports the market, however temporary. HYG is also moving in the right direction, a bit more slowly today than yesterday, but VXX hasn't made much progress yet.