A.M. Update

Since Friday's weekend forecast, the F_E_D's Fischer ( a voting soft dove) said there was an argument to be made for the path of F_E_D rate hikes or guidance, but the market will have to understand that the F_O_M_C is under no obligation to stick to them, which seems like common sense as well as seemingly redundant and meaningless to publish the path of rate hikes, apparently there seems to be a path judging by Fischer's statement which is the argument I've been making for about a year. Fischer added that rate hikes were "no big deal".

In addition the F_E_D's Mester (non-voter) says the time is near for rate hikes to begin and adds that the F_O_M_C will go in to the June meeting with an open mind and will be looking at the most recent data, suggesting in my view that as the minutes implied, there's a probability of no rate hike in June, it CERTAINLY isn't ruled out, that the "not ruling out a June rate hike" part may be more serious than otherwise initially taken (A September hike).

Spanish Elections on Sunday showed considerable progress for the Syria-like "anti-austerity" political groups, which of course is not being taken well by European markets.

In the US, after the 8:30 Durable Goods Order's beat with New Orders at -0.5 (better than consensus of -0.6) and "Ex-Transportation" at +.5 on consensus of +.4, it seems the real mover were the prior revisions with prior New Orders being revised up from +4 to +5.1% and "Ex-Transportation" being revised up from -0.2 to +0.6% sent the $USD higher continuing the counter trend bounce we expected as well as sending Stocks and Commodities lower including Crude as we have expected and specifically in to the new week as the 3C divergences ended the session Friday with considerable short term negative (in addition to longer term), suggesting stocks pick up where they left off at the close Friday as the new cash week opens this morning (even over a 3-day weekend).

First we expected the Averages to move lower early in the week based on the Igloo/Chimney pattern with the "Igloo" part not complete as seen here in Friday's The Daily Wrap

"I think the new Call/Put positions listed above to be profitable astrally in the week as the QQQ "reversal process" Igloo price pattern above that was expected to form this week should see early weakness next week before a head fake/"Chimney" which should allow us to open the new positions I have been watching this week, although we didn't enter any of the watch list trades as the signals were "close", but not quite there."

Thus the QQQ and IWM puts are in the green this morning as the concept of 3C picking up where it left off played out once again...Also from Friday's The Daily Wrap with significant closing negative divergences posted in all of the averages in Friday's The Daily Wrap.

The overnight and this morning's ES chart (1 min) with an initial plunge at 8:30 on the Durable Goods data and a second plunge lower at the 9:30 open as expected in The Daily Wrap.

This morning's 3C charts of the averages as they pick up where they left off with Friday's closing weakness as well as finishing the "rounding / Igloo top" lower...

 IWM with Friday's leading negative divergence/distribution in to Friday's close with this morning's concept of "Picking up where we left off" sending the IWM lower.

 The QQQ also sent lower with Friday's 3C negative divergences at the close picking up where they left off.

FOR THE MOMENT, QQQ AND IWM PUTS WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE.

SPY 1 min intraday with Friday's closing negative divergence picking up where it left off sending the SPY lower this morning.

Also our VXX call seeing gains this morning as the VXX closing positive divergence on Friday picks up where it left off , sending VXX higher this morning...

VXX 2 min with a leading positive divergence in to Friday's close.

As mentioned above, the $USDX continued its counter trend bounce for now higher on the Durable Goods print, also as expected, although we may be nearing a top for the counter trend bounce...

 $USDX moving higher this morning (1 min chart) on  not only a 3C positive divergence BEFORE the Durable Goods print, suggesting once again that we are seeing more leaked data as we did last week, but also continuing the counter trend bounce we had expected and have seen in the $USDX's trend...

60 min $USDX with the down trend and the "Counter trend" bounce at the yellow arrow. Remember, to be effective, counter trend bounces have to be strong and this is the reason we have seen such a strong $USD bounce with the $USD posting the strongest weekly move last week since 2008!

As might be expected, the move lower near term we have expected in oil has continued this morning on the Durable Goods data and $USD print higher...

 Crude Futures (1 min) lower this morning on the Durable Goods print and $USD move higher.

Moving oil (USO) lower as our swing term expectations suggest before a possible rend reversal after oil finishes up building its longer term base. This morning's move in red to the far right.

TLT/Bonds have moved higher which is in line with our longer term partial long position for a counter trend bounce in TLT/Treasuries, however not giving the near term pullback I had hoped to see to add to the position, at least not yet. I'll update TLT later.

Gold has moved lower with pour swing trend expectations lower, however the near term bounce expectations have not been met, however I will look at Gold and update as necessary if there looks to be a bounce coming...

GLD with its 1 min negative divergence lower on Friday afternoon suggesting a cash open lower as the 3C divergence picks up where it left off.

I'm going to get back to the charts as I suspect we may need to do some short term position management shortly.